Every Saturday we decipher climate issues with François Gemenne, professor at HEC, president of the Scientific Council of the Foundation for Nature and Man and member of the IPCC. Saturday October 21: good results of the energy sobriety plan.
This is good news: the energy conservation plan, launched last winter by the government, seems to be bearing fruit. Energy consumption fell by 12%. And it’s not because the winter had been particularly mild: the figures have been corrected to take this into account. But it is certain that other factors played a role. First there was the war in Ukraine: we were still massively importing Russian gas, and we therefore had the impression of directly financing Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression by heating our homes and our opportunities. The sobriety effort was therefore seen as our contribution to the Ukrainian war effort.
Another factor was obviously the energy crisis which caused energy prices to soar. For many households and businesses, bills became unpayable. Reducing your energy consumption means above all reducing your bill. Finally, there was the fear of running out of energy: everywhere it was said that the reservoirs were dry, the production of nuclear power plants was at half mast due to maintenance problems, and there was fear of a gigantic blackout if consumption was too important. Sobriety was therefore presented as a patriotic effort.
Today, as we turn on the heating again for the winter, the situation is completely different: we no longer fear a disruption in supply, the tanks are full, we have gotten rid of our dependence on Russian gas, and especially energy prices, even if they remain high, have fortunately moved away from last year’s peaks.
A risk that consumption will start to rise again
Last year, sobriety was often presented as an effort to make it through the winter. Can what appeared last year as a passing effort really take hold over the long term? In fact, this amounts to asking this question: in the drop in consumption recorded last winter, what part was motivated by climate change, and what part was motivated by other factors? It’s hard to say. Because last winter, the conjunction of factors was obvious: concern for the end of the world suddenly merged with concern for the end of the month. But what will happen this winter?
Research shows that many behavioral changes are often driven by the co-benefits we derive, rather than by reducing our carbon footprint. Co-benefits are the collateral advantages that we will be able to find from a change in behavior. For example, many motorists who prefer to go to work by bike rather than by car do so not so much to reduce their carbon footprint, but to get a little exercise, or to avoid wasting time in traffic jams. Those who choose to eat less meat do so primarily to have a healthier diet, etc. Reducing the carbon footprint is not the primary motivation.
Toyota has become the leader in the American automobile market thanks to the Prius, its hybrid car model. It was one of the first on the market, and the Americans rushed for it. American manufacturers like Ford or General Motors had also developed hybrid models, but they were not as recognizable as the Prius, which had a very recognizable design and which only existed in a hybrid version. For American models, you had to lift the hood to see that it was a hybrid model. However, for American consumers, what mattered was obviously to drive a more environmentally friendly car, but above all to show it, to ensure that on the street, or in their company parking lot, everyone could see how green and virtuous they were. This is what we call in marketing virtual signalingvirtue signaling.
Show the French that they have an interest in sobriety
If we want sobriety to take hold over time and not just be a temporary effort, we will have to show people why they are interested in sobriety, and therefore we will have to present it positively, and not as an effort to realize. Paradoxically, communication about the war effort, which worked well last year, risks coming back to us like a boomerang, especially if the winter is harsh.
Giving people a desire for sobriety is not going to be easy. This is where the symbolic signals will be very important: the decision of the French football team to make certain trips by train rather than by plane goes in this direction, for example. But we are still waiting for the end of the processions of cars with blaring sirens and police escorts as soon as a minister has to travel to Paris.
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