(Quebec) In a “very conservative” manner and claiming to follow the same methodology as that used by François Legault in 2005 when he was a PQ MP, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon argues that the elimination of overlapping ministries and programs between Quebec and Ottawa would lead to savings which would practically wipe out the shortfall created by the end of equalization, in the event of Quebec’s independence.
After several months of postponements, the leader of the Parti Québécois (PQ) will present on Monday an update of the year 1 budget for a sovereign Quebec. In interview with The Press Tuesday, he responded to a criticism often repeated by his adversaries, starting with CAQ Prime Minister François Legault, who asked him to explain how he would balance the finances of the country of Quebec while the province obtains nearly 13 billion in equalization of the federal government.
First, the PQ leader estimates that Quebec receives a net of 9.6 billion in equalization from the federal government, considering what it itself provides to finance the program. In his year 1 budget, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon estimates that the savings linked to independence, taking into consideration the end of overlapping ministries and programs, would amount to 8.7 billion.
According to his calculation, which he describes as “conservative” because it portrays the finances of a sovereign Quebec which governs itself according to the same choices as Ottawa, the shortfall would be less than 1 billion. However, this figure is not final, he adds, since it would be filled by positive consequences linked to the end of equalization.
There are unhealthy dynamics in equalization. Instead of encouraging your own companies to export, you’re stuck with natural resource-based activities taking place elsewhere that harm your economy in all sorts of ways.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the Parti Québécois
“And to say how [notre estimation est prudente]is that we take note of the fact that under Justin Trudeau, the federal public service increased by 40%” without offering better services to citizens, said the PQ leader.
Efficiency gains
In a chapter of the year 1 budget that it will table on Monday, the Parti Québécois targets several ministries where efficiency gains are possible, according to it, once federal responsibilities are repatriated to Quebec. These include, among other things, jurisdiction over income (with a single income tax return), the end of the duplication of federal programs that spend in areas of provincial jurisdiction, such as health, and the abolition of the monarchy. . The Year 1 budget does not provide for the costs associated with establishing another position, such as president, that could be created in a republican democracy.
“It is a pro forma exercise on the financial capacity of Quebec [de faire l’indépendance], and not on the operationalization of the project. We are just trying to assess whether Quebec is capable,” summarized Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. According to him, the answer to this question is yes.
In a study published Wednesday independently of the Parti Québécois, which was written by former PQ finance minister Nicolas Marceau, the Institute for Research on the Self-Determination of Peoples and National Independence (IRAI) estimates that “the “Efficiency gains and an end to duplication and overlap would result in annual savings of $7.5 billion.”
“Considering this, the shortfall resulting from the disappearance of equalization would therefore be reduced to 2 billion, an amount which represents only 0.4% of Quebec’s GDP in 2019,” calculates the IRAI for its part.
In 2005, in his document on the finances of a sovereign Quebec, François Legault estimated that by “recovering the taxes paid to Ottawa and eliminating overlaps between the two governments, Quebec could not only assume the expenses of the federal government and its fair share of debt service, but even more, to provide significant fiscal room for maneuver.”
The Prime Minister has since recalled that Quebec’s financial situation had changed, while the province receives an increasing share of payments linked to equalization.
A referendum in a first term
Asked directly to know if the Parti Québécois was considering proposing to initially form a “good government”, rather than moving forward with a referendum in a first mandate as it promises, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon wants the answer to be clear: “no”.
As long as we are in politics, we will aim to emerge from it at an indeterminate date, but having given the correct time at all times, on all subjects, and a fortiori on the most fundamental subject, that of destiny. Quebecers.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the Parti Québécois
“This means that we will not seek to find a shortcut to power […] by trying to hide one of the most fundamental questions of our time,” replies Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon.
At a press briefing on Tuesday, he answered all the questions concerning the country of Quebec, in particular his wish that it acquire an army, that it have its own currency and that it negotiate with Ottawa the question of borders.
The PQ leader adds that global upheavals – the pandemic, the wars that are breaking out, the acceleration of climate change and others – justify more than ever that Quebec asks itself the existential question of its political future.
“We are in a time when the pipes are bursting everywhere in the fundamental missions of the State. Not capable of healing our world, difficulties in educating our young people, difficulties in protecting youth and taking care of our elders. In a much more unstable global environment, […] “deciding for yourself and looking after your own interests is becoming a lot more important than in other times,” he says.
Between now and the next general election in 2026, the Parti Québécois will publish a response to the Initiative of the Century in 2024, which promotes sustained growth in immigration to Canada, and will launch a “blue book” in 2025. » on independence and will define what should constitute “Quebec citizenship” in 2026, before the electoral campaign.