After the legislative vote on Sunday October 15, Poles are awaiting the final results to know who from PiS, the conservative party in power, or the pro-Europeans will obtain a majority in Parliament. A victory for the opposition could allow a return to power of Donald Tusk and more progressive measures.
According to the first results of the Polish vote, the centrist opposition, led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk, seems in a strong position to form a majority. The Civic Platform coalition could form an alliance with two other parties and therefore send PiS, the Law and Justice party, into opposition.
However, Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s party comes first in the poll. He would win 200 of the 460 seats in Parliament, which remains insufficient to retain power. Even an alliance of PiS with the far-right Konfederacja party would not allow it to obtain a majority. The opposition appears poised to come to power, led by Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform coalition. With the votes of two other parties, the 3rd Way and the Left, the opposition would win 248 seats, and therefore the absolute majority.
A massive mobilization
Without waiting for the final results, Donald Tusk claimed victory. “It’s the end of this dark period, it’s the end of the PiS reign“, declared Sunday evening the former Prime Minister who could therefore, in a few weeks, lead the government again.
HAS Warsaw, Poles voted overwhelmingly for the opposition. In the streets of the capital, voters appear satisfied, even relieved. This is the case of Barbara, head chef in a restaurant. “I’m really happy because it’s the end of eight disastrous years. People think that in Poland we are closed, misogynistic, racist, but that’s not true!exclaims the thirty-year-old. Now we wait for the changes.“
This election was marked by a record level of participation: nearly 73% of voters went to the polls, or 11 points more than in 2019. Young people voted massively, especially young women. The majority of them mobilized against PiS, which considerably reduced the right to abortion in 2021.
What developments should the opposition pass?
If the results are confirmed, the victory of the Civic Platform coalition could trigger several changes in Poland. Donald Tusk wants to liberalize the right to abortion and also intends to tackle the corruption and cronyism which, according to him, are plaguing Poland.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s opponents accuse PiS of having built an authoritarian system that will have to be erased, explains Sébastian Mikoch, advisor to the president of the Polish Medef and close to the opposition. “This power is a power with very strong autocratic tendencies, which has put all the state institutions on its side: the Central Bank, the constitutional court, a so-called public television which is in fact pro-government. It is a change in style of government.” He concludes : “We need a break up.“
Donald Tusk also promises to calm Poland’s relations with the European Union. Warsaw and Brussels disagree on several subjects, including the independence of the Polish judicial system, immigration and even LGBT rights. The likely future Prime Minister will also have to normalize ties with his Ukrainian neighbor: relations have been strained since the establishment of the Polish embargo on grain imports. Donald Tusk assures that the next four years will be the most important post-war years for Poland.