It’s a huge surprise: in Poland, according to the polls coming out of the polls, the pro-European opposition won the legislative elections on October 15. The president of the “civic coalition”, Donald Tusk, claims victory. It’s the end of 8 years of power for the conservatives.
Certainly, in terms of number of votes, the ruling party, the PiS, finished the race in the lead (36.8%), during the legislative elections which took place in Poland, Sunday October 15, with a historic participation rate: almost 73%, by far the highest since the fall of the communist regime in 1989. MBut with 200 deputies, out of an assembly of 460, it is not enough to govern. Even with the help of the far-right Konfederajca, who hoped to “turn the tables” and only obtained 6% of the votes.
Opposite, the three democratic opposition parties obtained 248 seats, more than enough to form a coalition government.
“Democracy has won”
As of Sunday evening, the leader of this “civic platform”, the former President of the European Council Donald Tusk, did not hide his joy: “I have never been so happy in my life.. It’s the end of this bad period, it’s the end of the PiS reign. Poland has won, democracy has won“.
It was his bet: after his time in Brussels, Donald Tusk had plunged back into Polish politics to defeat the nationalists.
For the Poles, this goes to a priori change a lot of things. Donald Tusk promised to protect LGBT rights and to liberalize the right to abortion, which is one of the most restrictive in the world. On the economic front, he is committed to curbing inflation, 11% expected this year.
The obstacle: President Duda
But everything is not going to change with the wave of a magic wand either. President Andrzej Duda, member of PiS, is the ally of the nationalists. The new coalition will not obtain the three-fifths majority necessary to overturn presidential vetoes… It risks being confronted with frequent conflicts with the head of state.
Furthermore, under the Constitution, it is the President of the Republic who will initially designate the party responsible for founding a government team. Unless there is a surprise, the head of state should entrust the task to his own party, except that this mission is doomed to failure.
Poland’s relations with the European Union will considerably calm down. Warsaw is engaged in a standoff with Brussels because of its judicial reforms accused of undermining the independence of judges, and its multiple laws which call into question the rule of law. The 35 billion euros of the European recovery plan are frozen. The change of government should allow Poland to regain its money, its European values and its full place within the 27.