the article to read to understand the issue of a vote “more polarized than ever”

Poles are back at the polls. Three years after the presidential election, which saw the conservative nationalist Andrezj Duda reach the top of the State, it is the turn of parliamentarians to be elected by proportional representation, Sunday October 15, in a single round. In total, 460 seats of deputies and 100 mandates of senators are at stake during this election, which could mark the end of the omnipotence of the Law and Justice party (PiS), in power since 2015.

Favorites in the polls, the ultraconservatives remain threatened by a rise of the far right and the return to national politics of former liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who served as President of the European Council between 2014 and 2019. In eight years of reign, the PiS found itself under the fire of criticism for having notably restricted the right to abortion and attacked the LGBT community, before being put in difficulty by the war in Ukraine and galloping inflation. Franceinfo summarizes the issues at stake in these crucial elections for Poland, but also for the future of the European Union.

What is this election for?

In Poland, the legislative elections make it possible to designate the elected representatives of the Diet and the Senate, the two chambers of Parliament. At the end of this ballot, the majority (a single party or a coalition) appoints a President of the Council of Ministers, responsible for forming a government. All this is organized under the eye of the President of the Republic, Andrzej Duda (PiS), who has relatively limited powers compared to the head of government.

On Sunday, the Poles go to a proportional vote, which distributes seats according to the number of votes collected by the alliances and parties. Important detail: to be able to obtain seats, a party must reach at least 4% of the votes at national level (8% if it is a coalition).

Who are the favorites?

Three coalitions and one party are engaged in this race. First we find the United Right, which brings together nationalists, conservatives and populists, and which is dominated by the PiS. “Unsurprisingly, the ruling party is leading in the polls”underlines political scientist Dorota Dakowska, professor at Sciences Po Aix-en-Provence. “But if PiS gets around 35% of the votes, as is predicted, it will be too tight to obtain the majority and form a government alone”she explains.

The political scientist explains that the party led by the former Prime Minister, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, could therefore ally with “an even more right-wing formation” : La Confederation of Liberty and Independence (more often abbreviated to “Confederation”), an extremist and anti-system electoral alliance.

More in the center of the chessboard is the Civic Coalition, made up of liberals from Civic Platform (PO) but also ecologists and social democrats. This alliance is second in the polls, with 28% of voting intentions on average. She is led by Donald Tusk. “He is a very well-identified personality, with charisma”recalls Dorota Dakowska, about the man who led the Polish government from November 2007 to September 2014.

Why is abortion one of the key issues of the campaign?

Voluntary termination of pregnancy (abortion) was at the center of debates before the election. It is “the measure marked recent Polish political history”, analyzes Valentin Behr, research fellow at the CNRS, attached to the European Center for Sociology and Political Science. Since a 2020 constitutional court judgment, Polish women have faced a virtual ban on abortion. Abortion can now only be performed if the mother’s life is in danger, or if the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest. A “political villainy” denounced at the time Donald Tusk, who is now campaigning, like the left-wing coalitions, to expand access to abortion.

This 2020 judgment caused huge demonstrations in Poland, around a social movement called “Women’s Strike”. Since then, clandestine abortion support networks have developed. At the end of May, the death of a young woman suffering from septicemia after the death of her fetus provoked new protests in Warsaw.

Can the right to abortion be relaxed after the election?

Even if the opposition were to win – “which would be a huge surprise” according to political scientist Cédric Pellen, specialist in the country –, “the legacy of PiS will take a very long time to undo.” It would therefore be necessary for a new court decision to be taken to overturn that of the constitutional court. “However, the judicial system has been brought into line by the government,” explains Cédric Pellen, who mentions the appointment of judges favorable to PiS. “This also applies to the major public media, which have become propaganda tools.”

Another means of action envisaged by supporters of expanding access to abortion would consist of passing a new law. “But it takes a long time and depends above all on the scale of the coalition possibly formed by the opposition”, recalls Valentin Behr. If such a text were to be adopted, it could also be blocked by President Andrzej Duda, who has a right of veto, and whose mandate runs until 2025.

What are the other major issues of the campaign?

Inflation is “a theme often raised by the opposition” note Dorota Dakowska. With a rate exceeding 10% in recent months, price increases in Poland remain one of the highest in the EU. “Faced with this phenomenon, the PiS has agreed to generous social spending and is proposing to lower the retirement age,” recalls the political scientist. To denigrate the opposition, ultraconservatives frequently recall that Donald Tusk had, in his time, pursued an austerity policy. “bad experience by some of the Poles”underlines Valentin Behr.

The war in Ukraine “also weighs on political competition in Poland”continues Jérôme Heurtaux, lecturer at Paris-Dauphine University, even if the reception of Ukrainian families has not “no particular problems” To the population. “There is always the fear of Poland being a target of Russia, he recalls. We see this with the desire to build a high-level army for the next ten years.”

What is the record of PiS, in power for eight years?

The legacy of the government, led by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (PiS), is the subject of intense debate. His opponents accuse him pell-mell too close proximity to the Polish Catholic Church, very harsh positions against migrants or even measures dangerous for the environment, in this country ultra-dependent on coal.

But among its supporters, PiS is particularly popular for its budgetary management, its generous family allowance policy and its tax cuts. The ultraconservatives are also appreciated for having reduced, in 2017, the retirement age to 65 for men and 60 for women, compared to 67 for all until then.

What are the issues at European level?

Warsaw has never had such bad relations with Brussels, which particularly criticizes it for having attacked the independence of the judiciary. The crisis is so serious that Poland was temporarily deprived of funds from the European budget, and in particular the 35 billion euros provided for in the EU’s post-Covid-19 recovery plan. “If PiS stays in power, it will have to find new arrangements, because it would be very strange to give up European funds for years,” underlines Dorota Dakowska.

A victory for the coalition of Donald Tusk, a convinced European, could certainly “improve things”concedes the political scientist, “but it will not be easy to reverse the reforms which have undermined media freedom and justice”, she warns. During the campaign, Donald Tusk’s time at the Council of Europe was also the subject of criticism by the PiS. “It was suggested that those who voted for the Civic Platform were not real Poles, but traitors to the homelandrecalls Dorota Dakowska. It’s dangerous, it’s the sign of a campaign and a country more polarized than ever.”

I was too lazy to read everything, can you give me a summary?

Parliamentary elections in Poland could end eight years of rule by PiS, an ultraconservative party. They can also support him in his exercise of power, while the opposition and the European Union denounce serious attacks on the rule of law and women’s freedoms. In the latest polls, PiS comes out on top, with 33.5% of voting intentions. But that is not enough for him: he must above all win enough votes to form a government without having to negotiate with the far right, for example.

Faced with PiS, Polish voters have the choice between a liberal coalition of former Prime Minister Donald Tusk and coalitions of moderate or left conservatives. Even in the event of a victory for the opposition, which would necessarily require alliances in Parliament, reforms concerning the most controversial laws, in particular on restrictions on abortion, will necessarily take time, because many judges have been appointed by the PiS. As the war continues in neighboring Ukraine, parties are doing everything to mobilize their troops, in a country where the electoral participation rate generally hovers around 50%.