After the Hamas attack, launched on Saturday October 7, the situation between Israel and Gaza caused an increase in oil prices. The French government fears an increase in fuel prices for motorists.
The situation in Israel has a negative impact on oil prices. The French government is worried about an increase in prices at the pump, even though it thought that the problem had subsided a little: fuel prices were tending to fall. But, after the attack on Israel, the price of a barrel of oil soared, reaching $88. Analysts fear that we will approach 100 dollars per barrel quite quickly. They anticipate disruptions in the supply of black gold in an already tense market. Iran risks reducing its oil production on the world market and it remains to be seen how Saudi Arabia will react. In short, everything is very uncertain and volatile.
>> Israel-Gaza conflict: “This adds to economic uncertainty”, judges the governor of the Bank of France
TotalEnergies threatens to stop capping at 1.99 euros per liter
There is always a small gap between world prices and prices at the pump. But, for the consumer, the risk is prices which quickly exceed 2 euros. Despite the sales at cost price from brands, such as Leclerc or SuperU, prices will increase. Especially when, moreover, Patrick Pouyanné, the boss of TotalEnergies, threatens to stop capping at 1.99 euros per liter in his stations, if the government decides to increase taxation on refining. This threat comes as the discussion around the budget begins in parliament, and the plan is to extend the tax on oil super profits for another year. Any case puts pressure on the government
Without tax, a liter at 2 euros would be sold for 80 cents
An old debate resurfaces, that of reducing taxes, in particular, on the occasion of the publication of a note from Terra Nova. This think tank advocates the return of a floating tax, the TIPP, established between 2000 and 2002, under the Jospin government. The idea is to vary the amount of taxes according to fuel prices, to have elastic, modular taxation, to cushion price variations for motorists. To make it transparent and not too politically sensitive, Terra Nova suggests defining a predefined modulation scale each year in the budget, to avoid acting under the influence of crises and emergencies.
But the Ministry of the Economy is not too favorable to it, for ecological reasons. That wouldn’t be a very good signal. And with high prices, the risk is to adjust taxes downwards, which would mean significant less revenue for the State: taxes on fuel represent 60% of the price per liter. Without any tax, a 2-euro liter would be sold for 80 cents.