This text is part of the special Pleasures notebook
Tourist destinations are increasingly feeling the consequences of Mother Nature’s disruption. What if they weren’t — yet — all negative? State of play.
The murderous summer. The hesitant autumn. Winter with little snow. We see it with the naked eye here as elsewhere: climate change not only creates violent weather phenomena causing human tragedies, such as forest fires, heatwaves, torrential rains and hurricanes, they also disrupt the calendar of seasons. However, the desirability of destinations has always depended on a good climate, hence the famous “high season”, which even dictates the price of latte on the terrace. What effects will this have on their attractiveness and on the industry in general?
For Marc-Antoine Vachon, holder of the Transat Tourism Chair, a summer that drags on may not be such a bad thing in the immediate future. “That the summer continues is interesting for us,” he said straight away, “because it responds to the problem of managing tourist flows. With summer arriving earlier and ending later, not everyone arrives at the same place at the same time. This puts less pressure on hotel demand with the result that the destination remains a little more affordable. »
Danger in the long term
In the medium term, the professor says he is worried about the planet, and especially for all of us, but he is not worried about the destination Quebec, touristically speaking. “It is perceived internationally as being wintery. It will be a while before we realize that it can be 44°C in the summer in downtown Montreal! So Quebec, Canada will remain an oasis of freshness in the minds of the French, the Germans, the Mexicans. »
It is in the longer term that clouds are looming. They specifically affect the seasonal tourism products that Quebec puts forward, such as fall colors and the offer built around this spectacular natural phenomenon. “I am thinking of the Quebec forest, which is changing, and of the maple, which is not the tree species best adapting to climate change. In several years, the leaves may well lose their bright colors and there will be a lack of interest from international customers,” estimates the destination marketing expert.
An even more important pillar of Quebec’s tourism positioning is its northernness. However, winter is no longer what it used to be. The alternations of warm weather and polar cold make life difficult for major events like the Quebec Carnival and its ice sculptures. “Many of our festivals are based on the cold, but if we no longer have snow, if we are in slush…”
So, it went without saying that the first mountain Club Med on this side of the Atlantic would position itself as “a four-season village”, the first in the world, and not a Charlevoix ski village.
Meanwhile, in Europe…
On the other side of the pond, Jean-François Rial, president and CEO of the Voyageurs du monde group, which brings together a dozen brands established in around fifteen countries, also observes a change in the seasons. He also predicts that the short summer period will be replaced by two long seasons of sunshine. “So, six months of sunshine instead of two, and it will start immediately in the busiest tourist area in the world, the countries around the Mediterranean, which will then be less busy in summer and more in spring and at autumn. »
Like Mr. Vachon, the tailor-made and adventure tourism specialist underlines the beneficial spread of tourist flows that will result. No more, then, the fed-up of local populations feeling invaded by hordes of visitors? “This will be one of the few probable positive effects of climate change in the Mediterranean,” he believes.
What could the others be? Even if the negative aspects of these upheavals will remain dominant, certain regions will become more pleasant to visit in winter. Mr. Rial cites Egypt, Israel, Turkey, Greece, Spain, Italy and Croatia. “On the other hand, northern destinations will still suffer from their very long winter nights and warming will not change anything on this point, while the Gulf countries could become unvisitable because of the heat. »
Furthermore, the possibility of navigation in the Arctic in winter – which is not necessarily positive in itself – will cause merchant traffic to explode. “The only good thing? Maritime routes will be shorter and this will reduce energy consumption. »
If this shift in seasons will not de facto lead to changes in prices, regulated in any case by demand, Mr. Rial nevertheless believes that they will increase for another fundamental reason: the gradual and general implementation of an increasingly high carbon tax. In his eyes, it is inevitable. “Politicians around the world will decide as climate disasters continue. » To be continued…
This content was produced by the Special Publications team at Duty, relating to marketing. The writing of the Duty did not take part.