Ukraine’s arrival in the EU is almost certain, but it also risks shaking up a lot of things. The highly flammable question of treaty revision is notably on the table.
It is almost certain that the European Union (EU) will grow. It must even, according to the President of the European Council Charles Michel, be ready to welcome Ukraine, Moldova and the Balkan countries “by 2030”. The question of enlarging the EU beyond its 27 members has long been blocked by several states, including France. But the war in Ukraine changed everything. The proof ? During a trip to kyiv on Tuesday October 2, the French Minister of Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna announced that she was in “inside the future borders of the European Union”according to comments reported by The Express.
The subject must also be addressed during an informal meeting of heads of state and government in Granada (Spain), Friday October 6, the day after the third meeting of the European Political Community, where almost all countries of the continent are represented. If a large part of the Twenty-Seven are now in agreement regarding the relaunch of the enlargement machine, the modalities of this are debated.
The abandonment of the right of veto envisaged
The question that obsesses European diplomats is whether to change the EU’s governance rules. It must be said that there is urgency, as decision-making processes can be slow, as the reform of the European electricity market, still not completed, has illustrated. “The Union risks becoming ungovernable at 30 or more, making decision-making take ever longer, while we live in a world that is changing ever more rapidly”explains to franceinfo Gaëlle Marti, professor of public law at the University of Lyon 3. The expert is one of the twelve co-authors of a report commissioned by the French and German ministries of Foreign Affairs, and which focuses on the avenues of reforms with a view to enlargement.
Several hypotheses are considered to make the EU more effective, including the abandonment “the right of veto in the areas in which it is used, such as taxation or defense”, explains the specialist. One way to ensure that a country like Hungary, led by a close friend of Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orban, can no longer block a package of sanctions against Russia. The report also proposes to review the number of European commissioners, one per country at present, as well as the number of parliamentarians. “We cannot simply add more deputies in proportion to the demographic weight of the new members, the European Parliament is already one of the largest in the world,” confirms to franceinfo Steven Blockmans, director of the Center for the Study of European Policies.
To add clarity to the EU, the report also proposes harmonizing the electoral laws of the Member States during European elections, that the powers of the institutions be more explicit, but also that the Parliament and the Council agree on a method of appointing the President of the Commission, to make the process more democratic. However, experts do not go as far as proposing the right of initiative to the European Parliament, which would allow MEPs to propose laws. Requested for a long time by elected officials, it is currently reserved for the European Commission.
Towards a revision of the treaties?
If Europe must evolve, the thorny question of modifying the treaties that govern the EU therefore arises. The twelve experts therefore propose to organize a convention which would bring together experts, elected officials and European citizens “and would ensure greater transparency”, underlines Gaëlle Marti. The adoption of treaty amendments would then have to be ratified by member states, in some cases by referendum “according to country rules”. At the risk of reliving the psychodrama that followed the French and Dutch rejection of the European Constitution in 2005.
Enough to cool some of the Twenty-Seven. “It is clear that Germany is ready, but other member states do not want to hear about it”, explained a diplomatic source to franceinfo. And France? Proof that the subject is important, it is the Elysée which was keen to answer our questions, initially sent to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. But Emmanuel Macron’s entourage remains silent for the moment on the intentions of the Head of State, preferring to refer to “a collective European decision”.
The temptation to continue at “constant law”
Faced with the reluctance of certain countries to change the rules of the game, European officials risk having to deal with what already exists. The President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, therefore invited States not to “don’t wait” a change in the treaties to enlarge the EU, during his State of the Union speech delivered on September 13. It must be said that the question of the weight of Ukraine integrated into the EU makes an adaptation of the rules urgent. In addition to its 40 million citizens, the country could monopolize a large part of European subsidies, to the detriment of other member states. An internal analysis of the Council of the EU, revealed on Wednesday by the Financial Timesthus believes that the accession of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and six Balkan countries to the EU “would cut Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies to Member States by 20%” and would transform certain beneficiaries of the European budget, such as Poland or Estonia, into net contributors.
The alarmist figures are, however, debated among specialists on the subject. “The calculations we have made show that the arrival of Ukraine will not completely disrupt the financial balance”, points to franceinfo Steven Blockmans. In their report, the twelve Franco-German experts also recommend increasing the EU budget, but also making it more flexible in the event of a crisis. “We can also imagine reviewing the way the CAP works.”, adds Steven Blockmans. Objectives that are precisely achievable without treaty change.
“It is possible to do a lot without changing the treaties, in particular by using the accession agreements signed by the candidate countries.”
Steven Blockmans, research director at the Center for the Study of European Policyat franceinfo
In addition, assures the researcher, certain provisions, “like reducing the number of European commissioners” are already planned “by the Treaty of Lisbon” adopted in 2007, but “never applied”. Moving the EU forward “at constant law” risks, however, reviving old fractures, by suggesting that Europe is being created without its peoples, even “whether accession agreements must be adopted by each member state”. Europeans will have to get creative. “The EU has always been able to adaptmoderates Steven Blocksman. We still welcomed ten countries at the same time in 2004: it was a big bang, but we knew how to support it.”
One of the solutions could be the implementation of several “circles” integration. The twelve experts therefore propose that certain voluntary countries within the EU could go further in terms of political or economic integration. “But be careful, this does not mean a two-speed union, because the rest of the member states should always respect the treaties, in particular the rule of law,” precise Gaëlle Marti. An option already proposed in 2017 by Emmanuel Macron, during the Sorbonne speech.