Two days before the by-election in Jean-Talon, CAQ candidate Marie-Anik Shoiry unreservedly supported the Legault government’s about-face on the third Quebec-Lévis highway link, a “courageous” and “pragmatic” decision. She added: “During my door-to-door campaigning, this is an issue that people talk to me very little about. »
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Legault had a completely different version. “It’s clear that this decision hurt us a lot,” he said.
One of two things: either Mme Shoiry traveled the county for weeks without listening to what the voters were telling him, or Mr. Legault said anything to explain the beating that the Coalition Avenir Québec had suffered the day before.
The defeat was difficult to take, but one wonders if the Prime Minister had regained all his senses when he opened the door to a resurrection of the third link. No kidding ?! Five years of zaniness weren’t enough? Visibly taken by surprise, his own ministers were stunned. Like the scalded cat that fears cold water, Bernard Drainville warned against “empty promises”.
Last spring, Mr. Legault explained that it would be irresponsible to persist, when the traffic due to teleworking and the excessive cost of the project did not justify it. Could he now give the green light to an unreasonable project simply because the population wants it?
What upset Jean-Talon’s voters was perhaps less the abandonment of the third link than learning that in the spring of 2022, the CAQ had tried to recruit the new PQ MP Pascal Paradis by assuring him that the project would never be carried out, but that should not be said before the elections.
Mr. Legault had announced an examination of conscience, but he seems to have completely excluded from his reflection the possibility that Jean-Talon’s voters could have passed a judgment not only on his duplicity in the third link file, but also – and can – above all – on the record of his government.
This promise is not the only one not to have been kept. In 2018, the CAQ also committed to repairing the health and education networks, but the population has the unpleasant impression that the situation continues to deteriorate. Even the proper functioning of the courts is no longer assured.
It would be a serious error to believe that this crisis of confidence is limited to the Quebec region. The last Léger poll recorded a drop of 10 points there, but it also noted a drop of 6 points in the other regions, where we also feel the housing crisis and the harm of inflation. Mr. Legault must pray to heaven that another frustrated MP does not decide to resign and thus force another by-election.
As spectacular as the victory of the Parti Québécois was, it would be premature to conclude that it was the beginning of the end for the CAQ. The memory of the 2017 by-election in Louis-Hébert, which sounded the death knell for Philippe Couillard’s Liberals, perhaps explains the Prime Minister’s dismay, but there are still three years before the next general election.
The dynamic will undoubtedly be very different in 2026. The national question was not a factor in Jean-Talon; Paul St-Pierre Plamondon had postponed the publication of the new “year 1 budget” until after the election, precisely to prevent it from being published. The result would certainly not have been the same if the election had taken a referendum turn. Electing a fourth PQ deputy, when the CAQ had 90, was without consequences.
Mr. Legault has already begun to point out that the PQ is committed to holding a referendum on sovereignty in a first mandate. There was a time when Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon (PSPP) himself judged that this approach was suicidal, but he would never have been elected leader of the PQ if he had not changed his mind.
With the exception of Jacques Parizeau, the PQ leaders always ended up giving in to the temptation of stasis as power grew closer. The esteem that PSPP currently enjoys, however, is due to the frankness and uprightness that is attributed to it. To start finagling would make him lose all credibility.
The more threatening the PQ becomes, the more Mr. Legault will want to present himself as the bulwark against independence. Now perceived as a foreign body by the French-speaking majority, the PLQ is no longer able to play this role.
It’s all well and good to sing the praises of equalization, but it can become tricky to extol Quebec pride while pleading that it is better to remain within a federation where the weight of Quebec and French will always be in favor. decreasing. Born for a bun and proud of it. Mr. Legault must also keep in mind that the CAQ remains a coalition of which more than a third of voters would vote Yes.