The dismissal of Kevin McCarthy, ousted by the Trumpist fringe of his own party, has exposed the gaping fractures that run through American conservatives, one year before the 2024 presidential election.
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Never, in its more than 200 years of history, has the United States removed the speaker. But here is the American Congress, less than three years after the attack on the Capitol by supporters of Donald Trump, once again shaken by History.
“Great instability”
“Yesterday once again showed the level of chaos that reigns within the Republican Party and the level of chaos that the Republican Party is prepared to impose on the country,” underlines Julian Zelizer, professor of history and politics. public at Princeton University.
By taking control of the House of Representatives in January, conservatives hoped to shine the spotlight on Democratic President Joe Biden, whom they accuse of being “corrupt” and “lying to the American people.”
“Because of the chaos reigning in the House today, it is more complicated to talk about the failure that the Biden presidency represents,” lamented influential Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on Tuesday evening.
The “Grand Old Party” is not at the end of its troubles: the debate around the succession of Kevin McCarthy has already taken on the appearance of trench warfare. The names of Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan, members of the hard right, are circulating with insistence.
“This plunges the institution into great instability”, at a time when Congress must vote without delay on a new budget and decide on a possible new envelope for Ukraine, notes Professor Zelizer to AFP.
About forty days before a potential budgetary paralysis, parliamentary work was interrupted for lack of a new speaker.
Trump in court
And then there is Donald Trump. Former president, twice indicted, four times indicted, who dominates, by far, the race for the nomination in 2024.
The images of the mayhem in the chamber of the House of Representatives, captured by the country’s televisions, were only interrupted Tuesday by shots of the former Republican leader, in court in New York for a civil trial.
Tried for fraud on the value of his real estate assets, the septuagenarian nevertheless transformed this sequence into a political platform.
Because that’s the paradox: each twist and turn in Donald Trump’s legal saga also brings him millions of dollars in campaign donations, paid by Trumpists convinced that he is the victim of a political cabal.
See you in November 2024
The Republican added fuel to the fire Wednesday morning, saying – as usual – the victim of a “witch hunt” orchestrated by Joe Biden, whom he could face again in the presidential election.
What impact will the convulsions of the Republican Party have on this election, organized in November 2024? Opinions differ.
The divides between voters and Democrats are already deep, but the ambient chaos “could affect the undecided”, who probably hold the keys to the next election, predicts Professor Zelizer.
“Americans have short memories,” retorts Rob Mellen, professor at the University of South Florida. “We are 13 months away from the elections and the news will still have many surprises in store for us between now and then,” he says.
In other words, the important thing is not the fall, it’s the landing.