An entire territory emptied of its population: after the military victory of Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh at the end of 30 years of conflict and the departure of almost all the Armenians who lived there, Baku is preparing to take control of the ‘enclave.
“Reintegration”
“Reintegration is carried out on the basis of the Constitution, laws and international obligations of the Republic of Azerbaijan and within the framework of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic of Azerbaijan,” the presidency proclaimed on October 3 in a press release presenting its objective of reinstating its sovereignty over the region.
The presidency claims to guarantee “equal rights and freedom and security to all, regardless of their ethnicity, religion or linguistic affiliation” and promises opportunities for “the use of the Armenian language”.
But in reality, almost all of the 120,000 Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh have left the region since the government of the self-proclaimed republic announced its dissolution on 1er next January. In the localities previously taken over by Baku in 2020, almost no Armenian residents remained or returned.
In addition, Azerbaijan promised “a great return” to the approximately 750,000 Azerbaijanis who fled the region, its adjacent territories and Armenia following the Armenian victory in the First Karabakh War in the 1990s .
Disarming 30 years of war
Nagorno-Karabakh separatists have opposed Baku for more than three decades, notably during two wars between 1988 and 1994 and in the fall of 2020. The international community has never recognized the self-proclaimed republic.
After the separatists surrendered on September 24, most of the fighting stopped, but scattered incidents took place. Baku also mentions a risk of guerrilla actions in certain sectors.
But de facto, Azerbaijan controls the region, even if its army has not yet entered the major cities.
“There is no [plus] of illegal Armenian armed forces in combat outposts. Likewise, many bases, military bases, have already been liberated,” Colonel Anar Eyvazov, spokesperson for the Azerbaijani army, told Agence France-Presse.
Azerbaijan says “disarmament is complete.” An arsenal of more than 2,000 rifles and 22 armored vehicles was, among other things, seized, according to a provisional report.
The main threat, however, remains that of the mines present in the region, and no mine clearance plan has yet been announced.
Estimates vary greatly due to lack of precise mapping: Azerbaijan reporting “millions” of these mines, while other sources suggest at least 100,000.
Finally, few doubts remain about the departure of the Russian interposition force – a contingent of 2,000 soldiers deployed since 2020 between the belligerents – which will be “the subject of discussions with Baku”, according to the Kremlin.
Infrastructure upgrade
The Armenians left behind their property, their homes, but also the means of production: factories, fields, livestock.
Who will they return to? “Property issues will be regulated in accordance with the law,” explains the Azerbaijani presidency, without detailing.
Baku plans to bring “social and material infrastructure to the level of the rest of the country” and to circulate its currency there.
The enclave will be connected to national services. Baku’s water, electricity and telecommunications companies were among the first to set up operations in the territory.