It’s voting day this Tuesday in Manitoba, where after four weeks of promises, debates and controversial ads, the general election could make history in one way or another.
If outgoing Premier Heather Stefanson leads the Progressive Conservative Party to a third consecutive majority, she would become the first woman to be elected premier in a general election in Manitoba.
Indeed, Mme Stefanson was not elected prime minister in 2019. She instead succeeded Brian Pallister in 2021 when party members chose her to lead their party.
On the other hand, if the New Democratic Party (NDP) won after seven years in opposition, its leader, Wab Kinew, would become the first prime minister of a Canadian province to be from the First Nations.
It would be a special moment for Mr. Kinew, whose late father was not even eligible to vote as a young adult under Canadian laws in force at the time.
Opinion polls suggest the New Democrats are in the lead, particularly in Winnipeg, where there are 32 of the legislature’s 57 seats.
Health as a central issue
Support for the Conservatives plummeted during the COVID-19 pandemic, as hospitals struggled to cope with rising case numbers and dozens of intensive care patients were flown to other provinces.
The NDP, which won 18 seats in the last election, made health care the central theme of its campaign. Wab Kinew notably promised to reopen three hospital emergency departments that were downgraded by the Progressive Conservative government.
The leader was offensive throughout the campaign, holding press conferences in conservative-held areas and highlighting the local candidate.
“We believe this is the number one issue in Manitoba that needs attention,” Kinew said Monday during his final campaign news conference.
The New Democrats have made promises in other areas, such as providing more child care spaces, freezing hydroelectricity rates for a year and temporarily suspending the 14 cents per liter fuel tax until the inflation decreases.
The Progressive Conservatives, who won 36 seats in the last election, have promised to hire more staff for the health network and build hospital infrastructure.
They also pledged to cut taxes to help people facing inflation and stimulate the economy. They promised to cut personal income taxes and phase out the tax that employers pay on their total annual payroll.
To search a landfill or not?
Conservatives went on the offensive after calls to search the Prairie Green landfill, a private site north of Winnipeg, for the remains of two Indigenous women believed to have been killed and taken there last year last. Police have since charged a man with first-degree murder.
The Conservatives ran advertisements, including on large billboards, promising that they would “stand firm” in opposing “landfill excavation” due to asbestos safety concerns and to other toxic materials that could be found there.
The ads have been criticized from several quarters: by Indigenous leaders, by federal minister Marc Miller and by David McLaughlin, who managed the Manitoba Conservative campaigns under Brian Pallister in 2016 and 2019.
Heather Stefanson defended the ads. She said rejecting the research was a difficult decision, but worker safety and preventing the risk of cancer and other illnesses was paramount.
She pointed to a federally funded study that found the research was feasible, but would require special measures to reduce the risk to researchers. The report also said the research could take up to three years, cost up to $184 million and have no guarantee of success.
Mr. Kinew and Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont have promised to conduct research.
Mr. Lamont, for his part, hopes to grow his caucus beyond the three seats that the Liberals held in the Legislative Assembly at the dissolution. Recent opinion polls, however, suggest that their support has declined.