A strategic summit for Russia and North Korea

The announced strategic meeting between the leaders of North Korea and Russia materialized on Wednesday morning (local time) to the dismay of the United States, which is concerned about its potential impact on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who left Pyongyang on Sunday aboard an armored train, crossed the border between the two countries on Tuesday with the official intention of “visiting the Russian Federation”. He arrived early Wednesday (local time) at the Vostochny Cosmodome in eastern Russia, where he exchanged a handshake with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In this trip, Kim Jong-un is accompanied by senior military officials, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and those responsible for “weapons production and space technology”, according to Agence France-Presse.

The delegation provides an overview of the aims of the North Korean potentate, who had not left his country since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic three years ago.

Before the meeting, Russia was also tight-lipped about the purpose of the meeting, with a Kremlin spokesperson simply saying that the two leaders will discuss “sensitive issues”.

Ammunition versus ballistic technologies?

Denny Roy, an Asia-Pacific specialist at the East-West Center, notes that it is possible that North Korea will seek to obtain technology from Moscow that could strengthen its missile and submarine program.

Pyongyang sought in particular to take advantage of Russian know-how to succeed in mounting a nuclear warhead capable of supporting return to the atmosphere on a long-range missile, notes Tom Collina, an expert on nuclear proliferation issues from the Plowshares Fund.

On Russia’s side, “the immediate challenge is to obtain munitions from North Korea’s vast arsenal in order to be able to support its invasion of Ukraine,” notes Mr. Roy.

Washington has already accused North Korea in 2022 of transporting weapons to Russia by circumventing the sanctions regime in place while noting that this contribution was not likely to shake up the balance of power in the conflict.

The massive shipment of warheads available to North Korea would also not be likely to change the situation on the ground while the Ukrainians are leading a counter-offensive which is progressing slowly, notes Mr. Collina.

“We are talking about unsophisticated artillery. It will perhaps allow Russia to sustain a higher rate of fire, but it is not a magic weapon,” he says.

Washington irritated

The planned exchange between Russia and North Korea nonetheless displeases the administration of US President Joe Biden, who has warned Kim Jong-un not to move forward.

Colinna notes that the United States can do little more than lecture Pyongyang in the current context.

The North Korean regime is already subject to heavy sanctions because of its nuclear program and any attempt to penalize it further through the United Nations Security Council would undoubtedly be blocked by Moscow and China, another ally. .

Both Beijing and Moscow sent high-ranking representatives in July to attend a military parade marking the anniversary of the Korean War armistice.

In August, Russia and North Korea exchanged letters emphasizing the need to develop “a long-term strategic relationship consistent with the demands of a new era” related by Pyongyang to a new Cold War.

Mr. Roy notes that the North Korean regime also seeks to maintain good relations with Russia “in order to put pressure on Beijing” and force it to maintain its support.

The ongoing rapprochement does not bode well for U.S. efforts to convince North Korea to give up its nuclear arsenal, which Kim Jong-un views as a key element in protecting his regime against aggression.

“The Americans want to talk about dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program while Pyongyang is more interested in discussing nuclear arms control. There is nothing they want in what the United States has to offer right now,” Mr. Colinna says.