North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will make an “official visit” to Russia “in the coming days”, the Kremlin announced on Monday, his armored train “appearing” to be on its way to Russian territory where, according to Pyongyang, he will meet Vladimir Poutine.
Rumors had been circulating for a week about Mr. Kim’s stay in Russia, with Washington suspecting the latter country, largely isolated since the start of its assault on Ukraine and in search of arms, of wanting to acquire military equipment from its North Korean ally.
South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported that Kim Jong-un’s train “appeared” to have left for Russia, which shares a short border with North Korea in Russia’s Far East, not far from Vladivostok where Mr Putin arrived on Monday before attending an annual economic forum the next day.
The father and predecessor of the current North Korean number one, Kim Jong-il, was afraid to fly. His son, who also favors rail for his international journeys, lacks confidence in his private plane and maintains “concerns about the potential for air attacks from Washington”, believes Yang Moo-jin, the president of the Seoul University of North Korean Studies.
“At the invitation” of Putin
The Russian press release limits itself to saying that the North Korean leader’s trip is being made “at the invitation of the Russian president”, which is also underlined by the North Korean state news agency KCNA.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov assured Monday, before the official announcement of this trip, that no Kim-Putin meeting was planned within the framework of the forum which will take place in Vladivostok.
KCNA affirms for its part, without further details, that “the respected comrade Kim Jong-un will have a meeting and talk with comrade Putin during his visit”.
According to South Korean television station YTN, Seoul “expects Chairman Kim to meet with President Putin of Russia around the day after tomorrow,” or Wednesday.
According to the American daily The New York Times, this meeting must take place in Vladivostok, about 700 km from Pyongyang.
The White House announced on September 5 that Kim Jong-un wanted to see Vladimir Putin to discuss arms sales to Russia as part of his offensive in Ukraine. Washington at the same time warned that North Korea would pay “the price within the international community”.
The New York Times believes that Moscow is seeking artillery shells and anti-tank missiles from Pyongyang, while Mr. Kim is said to be seeking cutting-edge technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines as well as a food aid.
Russia and North Korea have historical ties and Kim Jong-un has repeatedly expressed his support to Moscow for his operations in Ukraine.
“A kind diplomatic blackmail”
Kim Jong-un had not left North Korea since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Kookmin University, said a Putin-Kim summit was part of Moscow’s “friendly diplomatic blackmail” against Seoul because Russia did not want the South Koreans are supplying weapons to the Ukraine.
South Korea is indeed a major exporter of military equipment and has sold tanks to Kiev’s ally Poland, but its long-standing domestic policy prohibits it from supplying weapons to parties engaged in real wars.
“The main concern of the Russian government at the moment is a possible delivery of South Korean munitions to Ukraine, not just one delivery but many deliveries,” Lankov continued.
Cheong Seong-chang, a researcher at the Sejong Institute, meanwhile told AFP that if North Korea intensified its military cooperation with Russia, “there would be an increased likelihood of a protracted conflict in Ukraine”. While as a reward for its aid to Moscow, “the development of North Korea’s nuclear submarines and reconnaissance satellites could progress at a faster pace.”