Spanish voters return to the polls on Sunday. The head of the socialist government has advanced the ballot by six months, in an attempt to counter the right but also to extinguish the challenge in his own camp.
A political tactic or a gesture of appeasement towards the Spaniards? After the disappointment of the government coalition in the regional and municipal elections at the end of May, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called early legislative elections. The leader of the Socialists affirms that he wants “submit [son] democratic mandate to the popular will”who is invited to speak at the polls on Sunday July 23 in Spain.
Some see other motivations behind this announcement. It must be said that it took almost everyone by surprise: the Prime Minister decided a few hours after the closing of the polls on May 28, surrounded only by his closest collaborators, reports El País. The rest of the government and its radical left allies were not consulted. “Nobody expected it, but it fits with the personality of Pedro Sanchez: he is a former basketball player, who is used to going for it”remarks Maria Elisa Alonso, political scientist and teacher-researcher at the University of Lorraine.
A “handicap” for the socialists?
“Some would say he’s an excellent strategist, but also an opportunist,” summarizes Antoine de Laporte, expert associated with the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. “He gives the image of a cynical politician, whose word is not worthy of trust, ready to change his position at any time”, adds Benoît Pellistrandi, historian and teacher in preparatory classes at the Lycée Condorcet, in Paris. In December 2019, the socialist leader announced a government coalition with the radical left of Podemos, “while he had sworn a few months earlier never to ally with them”recalls the historian.
“Pedro Sanchez is a divisive Prime Minister, hated by part of Spanish society. He cannot make a trip without being targeted by shouts and jeers.”
Antoine de Laporte, expert associated with the Jean-Jaurès Foundationat franceinfo
The head of government irritates the right as much as the oldest executives of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE). “During the campaign for the regional and municipal elections, he constantly put himself forward, to the detriment of elected officials and local candidates who were nevertheless appreciated.emphasizes Benoît Pellistrandi, author of the book The Fractures of Spain (Gallimard, 2022). This excess of communication has transformed these local elections into an anti-Sanchez plebiscite: it has become a handicap for the socialists.”
However, it is difficult to attribute sole responsibility for the victory of the conservative People’s Party (PP) to the personality of the Prime Minister. Because the PSOE has also been weighed down by its alliances, in particular with the Catalan and Basque separatists. “During the May elections, the Basque party EH Bildu presented around forty candidates who had been convicted of acts linked to the ETA organization”, notes Maria Elisa Alonso. Seven of them, who had been imprisoned for murder, finally gave up, according to RTVE.
A positive assessment “overshadowed” by the controversies
Cohabitation with Podemos has not always been easy either. Dissension within the government coalition has often been reported in the press, giving the image of an alliance lacking unity. “Pedro Sanchez has carried out several reshuffles, changing only socialist ministers, also notes Benoît Pellistrandi. He seemed less like the head of government than the leader of the most powerful party in a two-headed executive.”
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The left bloc has suffered above all from the controversies around an emblematic text carried by Podemos, baptized “Only a yes is a yes”. Entering into force at the end of 2022, it places the notion of consent at the heart of the law on sexual violence, recalls El País. Supposed to be a major step forward for women’s rights, “it had unexpected effects”, notes Benoît Pellistrandi. The law, which lowers the minimum penalty for these crimes, “led to sentence reductions for [plus de 1 000] sex offenders and early release from prison”. She has “was finally revised on the initiative of the socialists, with the support of the PP, which undermined the credibility of the coalition”continues the historian.
This type of controversy has “occult” the balance sheet of the executive, judge Benoît Pellistrandi. Spain, however, has “falling unemployment and one of the lowest inflation rates in Europe”, observes Maria Elisa Alonso. The left-wing coalition has also “passed a historic agreement on labor law, passed a law governing rents to respond to the serious housing crisis, raised the minimum wage and pensions, created menstrual leave”lists the political scientist.
“In four years, the government of Pedro Sanchez has managed to adopt many reforms. But the middle classes do not yet perceive these developments in their daily lives and the socialists have not managed to take advantage of these successes.”
Maria Elisa Alonso, teacher-researcher at the University of Lorraineat franceinfo
After the regional rout, the Prime Minister took “the least worst of the bad solutions”believes Antoine de Laporte. “He risked seeing his popularity slowly erode until the legislative elections, initially scheduled for Decemberabounds Maria Elisa Alonso. And energized by its victory in the May elections, the PP would have constantly attacked the government. By advancing the election by six months, Pedro Sanchez therefore wanted to prevent the right from carrying out a devastating campaign for the PSOE.
This maneuver also served to suffocate him “any attempt to question [de son leadership] within the Socialist Party, analyzes Benoît Pellistrandi. The Prime Minister is “challenged by part of the management” movement, confirms Antoine de Laporte. But no one wanted to risk further destabilizing the PSOE. by exposing its internal quarrels. “Until July 23, the Socialists had to display a front unit”points out the expert associated with the Jean-Jaurès Foundation.
“Playing on fear” of the far right
By advancing the date of the legislative elections, Pedro Sanchez therefore forced his party, but also his allies of the radical left, to unite. For months, negotiations had dragged on between Podemos and Sumar, a new movement founded by Labor Minister Yolanda Diaz. The urgency finally led them to a fragile alliance, but which could allow the progressive coalition to stay in power, reports the RTVE channel.
According to the polls, neither the PP nor the PSOE will manage to gather the absolute majority of 176 seats on the 350 of the Congress of Deputiesthe Spanish lower house. “They will need a coalition. The political force that comes in third place will be decisive: either the far-right Vox party or Sumar,” decrypts Maria Elisa Alonso. According to the political scientist, “Pedro Sanchez will try to play on the fear of Vox to remobilize his voters”.
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From the very first days of this blitz campaign, the Prime Minister insisted that there was no “no difference” between Vox and the Conservatives. The more than 130 alliance agreements signed by these movements at the end of regional and municipal elections, which “reveal how much the PP accepts the ideology of the ultra-right”, according the radio Cadena Ser, could give weight to this assertion.
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The socialist leader’s bet is risky, however, because the gap between the left and right blocs is tight. The PSOE alone has only 28.7% of voting intentions, according to El País, behind the PP (32.9%). And his ally Sumar (13.7%) is neck and neck with Vox (13.5%). “Pedro Sanchez knows he’s cornered: either he loses power or he gets four more years at the helm of Spain. He has nothing to lose”, reveals Antoine de Laporte. Can this gamble pay off? “If the PSOE wins the elections, the dispute within the party will subside, even if fundamental disagreements will remain between the Prime Minister and certain executives”, says the expert associated with the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. Whatever the outcome, “the victory as well as the defeat of the Socialists in the legislative elections will also be those of Pedro Sanchez”.