the meteoric rise of Vox, the far-right party that could return power to the conservatives

“Vox has become decisive in building the alternative [à la gauche] that Spain needs.” It was almost a victory speech given by Santiago Abascal after the regional and municipal elections in Spain on Sunday 28 May. And for good reason: his far-right party now has representatives in all the regional assemblies of the country, notes the RTVE channel. In several cities and autonomies, the conservatives of the People’s Party (PP) have even been forced to make agreements with Vox to govern, points out El País.

The formation of Santiago Abascal approaches the early legislative elections of Sunday July 23 having consolidated its position as the third political force in the country. She had acquired it in November 2019, by winning 52 seats in Congress (the Spanish lower house), reports the daily. The Vanguardia. Two years earlier, however, Vox was “a non-existent party that never exceeded 0.6% of the vote”, according to Steven Forti, professor of history at the Autonomous University of Barcelona. So how to explain this lightning ascent?

Anti-migrants and anti-independence

The ultra-right movement was born from a split in the People’s Party in December 2013. “Its founders then blame the PP, which runs the country, for being too complacent and weak with the Catalan separatists”, says Steven Forti. Vox is “above all a nationalist formation”, continues the historian. It took off thanks to the Catalan crisis of 2017, when the autonomous region tried to secede. “This leads to a nationalist reaction among part of the population, opposed to the independence of Catalonia.”

“Vox has fed on this nationalism to attract voters, but also gain visibility in the media.”

Steven Forti, professor of history at the Autonomous University of Barcelona

at franceinfo

After the failure of the Catalan secession, the separatist leaders are arrested and prosecuted. The movement of Santiago Abascal is a civil party and its secretary general at the time, the lawyer Javier Ortega Smith, represents it during the trials of 2019 broadcast live, recalls the site El Diario. “While the majority of Spaniards were unaware of the existence of Vox, the party was suddenly constantly on television”explains Steven Forti.

By the way, Spain discovers the program of these ultra-conservatives. They defend “a traditional vision of the family, catholic”opposed to the extension of the rights of LGBTI+ people, specifies political scientist Maria Elisa Alonso. “Vox is a climatosceptic, Islamophobic party, which does not recognize the existence of violence against women”, list theteacher-researcher at the University of Lorraine. “Another pillar of his program is the criminalization and expulsion of migrants, which he links to security issues”adds Steven Forti.

The movement also “seized with the malaise of farmers”, adds Maria Elisa Alonso. “This economic sector is neglected by the main parties. Vox has therefore decided to become the spokesperson for this forgotten rural Spain, especially before the European Union”, details the specialist.

Following the examples of Orban and Meloni

In a context of “polarization of political life”the party “managed to embody a far-right political culture that already existed [durant la dictature] in Spain“, decrypts Benoît Pellistrandi, historian and teacher in preparatory classes at Lycée Condorcet, in Paris. “After Franco’s death, his supporters were still present but they no longer had the means to express themselvesabounds Maria Elisa Alonso. They expected a political force that responds to the ideology of Francoism, and that is Vox.”

Officially, Santiago Abascal’s movement does not claim Franco’s heritage. But he “maintains ambiguity”points out Steven Forti. “Vox openly criticized the government’s decision of the socialist Pedro Sanchez to exhume Franco’s remains from his mausoleum to bury him in a private cemetery”in 2019, illustrates the historian. He accused the executive of reopening the wounds of the dictatorship.” A way of “attract the sympathy of supporters of Francoism”without openly celebrating it.

The party prefers to emphasize its proximity to the rest of the European far right, whose ideology it shares. “Vox is focused on the present and the future: its model is Viktor Orban’s Hungary”, notes Maria Elisa Alonso. Or the Italy of Giorgia Meloni, whose movement, Fratelli d’Italia, has also gone from marginal to essential in just ten years of existence. To the point of becoming the first political force in the country, in October 2022, and of making the Roman the new head of the Italian government. “We hope that Spain also goes to the right!”had then written Georgia Meloni on Twitter.

Vox, key party of the anticipated legislative?

If it is possible that Spain “pass to the right” Sunday, Santiago Abascal still seems far from taking the head of the government. “The party that dominates the Spanish conservative camp is the PP”, believes Steven Forti. With 32.9% of voting intentions in the polls, Alberto Nuñez Feijoo’s party is well ahead of Vox, credited with 13.5% according to the latest opinion poll for El País.

Will the far-right movement manage to be, as in 2019, the third political force in the Congress of Deputies? This is Santiago Abascal’s goal. “Neither the PP nor the PSOE will obtain an absolute majority. They will have to form an alliance to governanalyzes Maria Elisa Alonso. On the right, it will go through a coalition with Vox.” As proof, the political scientist cites the more than 130 agreements concluded between the two parties following the municipal and regional elections on May 28. These pacts “reveal how much the PP accepts the ideology of the ultra-right”according to radio Cadena Ser, which refers to measures “minimizing” the fight against gender-based violence or greenhouse gas emissions.

“There is no ‘cordon sanitaire’ against the far right in Spain: if it needs these votes to form a government, the PP will not hesitate.”

Steven Forti

at franceinfo

“If these two parties together have more than 176 deputies in Congress, the country will be led by the right. But with what program? Everything will depend on the balance of power”, summarizes Benoît Pellistrandi. The challenge for the formation of Santiago Abascal is “to obtain a maximum of seats in order to enter the governmentinsists the historian. This would not only allow Vox to be a determining voice in these elections, but also to influence the policy of the future executive.”