Sultan al-Jaber, the Emirati president of the most important international climate conference since the one that delivered the Paris agreement, has a simple answer when asked when the world will burn its last drop of oil: when there will be enough low-carbon energies to replace it.
“We cannot put an end to the current energy system before having built the energy system of tomorrow,” he replied in an interview with AFP in Brussels.
The man who is also boss of the Emirati oil company had just delivered for the first time the menu of objectives he intends to bring to the COP28 which will open on November 30 in Dubai, in a speech in front of European and Chinese ministers.
To those who hope that the world will call for an exit from oil and gas, he replies that their reduction is “inevitable” and “essential”, but that realism prohibits doing without them overnight. He even speaks of a “shortage” of energy today.
“We have to keep in mind that 800 million people don’t have access to electricity today,” he said, “we don’t want to create an energy crisis.”
“I don’t have a magic wand, I don’t want to invent dates that are not justified,” he points out, assuring that no one is able to put forward a precise date for the exit from fossil fuels.
With the private
The reasoning is pragmatic for someone who is both an expert in fossil fuels and renewables, as head of the national company Adnoc, and founder of the national renewable energy company, Masdar.
Sultan al-Jaber, who has also led his country’s delegation to a dozen COPs, strongly rejects the recurring accusations of bias on the part of environmentalists, while Adnoc plans to develop new oil fields.
“It’s not a conflict of interest, it’s our common interest to have someone who comes from business,” he continues, noting that he is the first boss president of COP. “It’s even motivating, to prove to the world that someone with my experience can come up with something completely different.”
He unveiled objectives on Thursday which seem to draw the backbone of a major agreement at COP28, the genre of which he clearly wants to renew. The last two editions have ended in a diplomatic fight between those who want to see the adoption of an exit from fossil fuels and the oil-producing countries, from the Gulf to the United States.
He wants to mix the commitments of the States under the aegis of the UN and those of the industrialists and the private sector to which he intends to give a large place in Dubai. He expects 70,000 participants, double the largest past COPs.
“We must do everything to keep 1.5°C within reach,” insists Sultan al-Jaber, referring to the maximum warming target set by the Paris Agreement.
“I have no doubt that we will be able to produce a concrete result” at the end of a COP “oriented towards action (…) and supported by the private sector and private capital”.
Among the concrete goals proposed on Thursday: triple the capacity of renewables in the world by 2030, to 11,000 gigawatts, double the improvement in energy efficiency by 2030, double the production of hydrogen by 2030.
Objectives to which the European Union, which had almost slammed the door at COP27 in Egypt, already largely subscribes.
pro nuclear
“I am very optimistic”, summarizes Sultan al-Jaber, who sprinkles his remarks with “results”, “actions” and “key performance indicators”.
The 49-year-old engineer also unhesitatingly defends nuclear power: “a safe, sustainable, low-carbon source of electricity, which can be a very robust bridge in this transition”.
For the first time, a global assessment of countries’ climate commitments, expected in September, will precede the COP. We already know what he will conclude: despite all the great promises of carbon neutrality, the plans actually adopted are insufficient to limit global warming.
Sultan al-Jaber, always eager to show himself in action, therefore wrote Thursday to all the countries participating in the COPs, publicly calling on them to revise their climate plans upwards “by September, to align them with the Paris Agreement”.
On the same day, the United Arab Emirates released its own updated plan. Climate Action Tracker experts will say in a few days whether this improves the Emirates’ rating, so far in the “highly insufficient” category.