Could a possible fall of Vladimir Putin give birth to a democratic regime in Russia? “I have nothing but this hope to help me live here, confides to the Duty Olga, 45, who lives in Moscow. But I know that won’t happen. After Yevgeny Prigojine’s rebellion, which surprised both the international community and the Russians themselves, the country could instead be heading for a period of turbulence with a view to a redistribution of resources between the elites who gravitate around the president. .
“Whether with or without Putin, things are starting to get turbulent. We see that, little by little, Putin is losing control of Russia, of resources, of influence groups,” analyzes Russian political scientist Vera Grantseva, who teaches at the School of Advanced Studies in Economics in Moscow – now virtual way since she left Russia in 2020 — as well as at Sciences Po Paris.
If Putin manages to stay in power, a hardening of his regime is to be expected. Purges in his entourage and within the army – where Prigojine had support – will probably occur. “Perhaps he will also do more repression at the level of society because we saw that in Rostov-on-Don, there were a lot of people who welcomed the Wagner group [d’Evgueni Prigojine] with flowers,” notes the professor, who worked at the Saint Petersburg City Hall as an expert in international relations from 2008 to 2016.
Other rebels could nevertheless be tempted to challenge the now tottering authority of the former KGB officer. The flaws in Putin’s regime have been exposed, and it is now established that it is possible to oppose the president head-on while remaining alive — at least temporarily. Vera Grantseva also notes that the Wagner group is not the only private militia in Russia. A coup is therefore possible – whether open or hidden – a scenario in which Putin would remain president while being excluded from decision-making, explains the professor.
mafia elite
A reversal that could open the door, there too, to a violent period, since the mafia elites of the country will try to appropriate and divide the wealth of Russia. “All actors [qui gravitent autour de Poutine] are well motivated by the control of resources, especially oil and gas”, underlines Mr.me Grantseva, who does not hesitate to draw a parallel with the chaotic period of the 1990s in Russia, during which oligarchs separated the resources of the immense territory which had just been liberated from the communist yoke.
A lot of money is once again at stake. “This redistribution could become quite dangerous since some may want to have more or have something they didn’t have before,” she said. This shuffling of cards could begin even if Putin manages to cling to power.
As Olga mentioned, whose surname we are withholding for security reasons, a switch to democracy therefore seems largely improbable. Especially since the country has been stripped of its democratic institutions in recent years, with independent courts, a free press and a truly functioning parliament having gradually disappeared under Putin’s iron fist.
There remains, however, a tiny possibility that the people will succeed in revolting despite the repression. But, although she fervently wishes for an end to Putin’s rule, Olga feels that she and her compatriots are helpless. ” We can not do anything. We are very afraid, ”she testifies, specifying that she has nevertheless participated in demonstrations since 2014 against the successive invasions of Ukraine. “When someone knocks on my door, I’m scared,” she adds. Our publications on social networks are scrutinized. There are police everywhere watching the streets. I can’t even put a blue and yellow ribbon in the colors of Ukraine on my bag, because I know I’ll get arrested if I do. »
Apathy
Sergei, a 19-year-old student joined in Moscow, who does not want his surname published for security reasons, also does not believe that civil society can have a grip on the political future of the country. “We would like to change things, but we cannot influence political life. And I don’t know when we’ll be able to do that,” he said.
The majority of Russians do not care what happens in the upper echelons of power, he adds. “Most people in our country haven’t even noticed what happened two weeks ago,” with the Prigozhin uprising, he notes.
A public apathy, caused in part by its lack of control over the current situation, which makes it “more likely that changes will come from the top of the system with the breakdown in the elites, cracks, internal conflicts and a weakening of Putin”, analyzes Vera Grantseva, who does not, however, completely close the door to the possibility that the younger generations will revolt.
Ukraine: the mistake
Despite the instability of the past few months, many Russians continue to support Putin, Olga believes. “They want a strong leader. A lot of Russians have lived their whole lives with this idea that it’s good to have a strong father figure,” she says.
But the war in Ukraine could be the turning point that will lead to the downfall of Putin’s regime. “This is Putin’s biggest mistake in his 23 years of presidency”, launches Mme Grantseva. The Kremlin strongman could have continued to lead the country quietly for several years, given that the illegal annexation of Crimea was hardly making waves and the country’s economy benefited from gas exports to Europe.
“To embark on such madness was a great risk,” notes the political scientist. But Putin was likely misinformed, possibly due to his “regime failings” in which he suppressed any dissenting voices.
Above all, this war was launched by Putin to establish his legitimacy, believes the professor. In democratic regimes, this legitimacy, necessary to govern, is periodically reaffirmed by elections. But in an authoritarian regime, it must be found elsewhere. “Crimea served as such legitimization. After the annexation in 2014, there was a rise in patriotism in Russia,” notes Vera Grantseva. And Putin was then seen as a strong national leader.
The Russian president would have liked to repeat his success of 2014 by launching on February 24, 2022 the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But today, he must rather ask himself how he can extricate himself from this quagmire.