(New York) Oil prices ended close to balance on Thursday, first sapped by fears of further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes before being perked up by good news from U.S. demand for oil. refined products.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in September ended down slightly by 0.16%, at 76.52 dollars.
Its American equivalent, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), with maturity in August, nibbled one cent (+0.01%), to 71.80 dollars.
Operators first reacted to figures from the ADP cabinet report, which reported 497,000 job creations in June, more than double what economists expected (220,000), a peak since February. 2022.
This figure “reinforced fears that the Federal Reserve would raise rates, which would slow the economy and the demand for oil”, commented Phil Flynn, of Price Futures Group.
“It instilled fear in the oil market,” the analyst explained, “and prices plummeted. »
The market thus now assigns a probability of almost half (46%) to the scenario of two additional rate hikes by the end of the year, a hypothesis deemed far-fetched a month ago.
But after having dropped to more than 2%, the WTI rose on the back of another report, that of the American Energy Information Agency (EIA), which revealed a volume of refined products delivered to the United States at a six-month high in the week ended June 30.
Over four weeks, the indicator most followed by analysts, the products delivered, which reflect American demand, are 3.5% higher than their level last year at the same time.
These data “are extremely favorable to prices”, underlined Phil Flynn. “So after the initial slide, the market rallied,” ending up close to equilibrium.
Operators particularly noted the acceleration in demand for gasoline, which had not reached these volumes since October 2021.
“Demand is very strong,” hammered Phil Flynn, despite fears of a slowdown to come.
However, Thursday’s sequence “puts even more emphasis on the monthly employment report” from the US Department of Labor, expected on Friday and deemed more reliable than the ADP data. “If he confirms these incredible job creations, the market [de l’or noir] could get scared. »