Eastern REM at 36 billion | No project before 2036 and Quebec already wants to reduce costs

The new 100% underground route of the REM de l’Est, valued at $36 billion, would take “four or five years to build” and would be in service around 2036. But already, the Minister of Transport, Geneviève Guilbault, says that it will be necessary to “work to reduce the costs and the overall bill” of this new version.

“If we had the green light for the start of the project in the coming months […], we would have a commissioning around 2036, ”explained Tuesday the head of the Eastern Structuring Project (PES), Marc Dionne, at a press conference. He says that before starting construction, there would have to be calls for interest, tenders and engineering work.

From Saturday, The Press had revealed that the committee behind the project recommends a route from Pointe-aux-Trembles to Cégep Marie-Victorin, in Montreal-Nord, with two connection points to the green line, in addition to an extension of four stations towards Rivière- des-Prairies, Laval and Charlemagne. Experts argue for a 100% underground route. The final bill would reach 36 billion. The project would cover 34 km and the ridership, in the morning peak, would be 29,000 passengers.

In its current form, the project should “take four or five years,” said Mr. Dionne. It is the Legault government which will however have to decide before starting anything.

According to our information, Minister Guilbault’s decision will not come before the fall. “The report gives us avenues and recommendations to analyze and take into account for the future. That said, it is certain that the proposal that is made exceeds the ability of Quebecers to pay, ”reacted his press secretary, Léonie Bernard-Abel, on Tuesday.

“We will have to work to reduce the costs and the overall bill at which the ARTM arrived. We will continue, with all the partners, the analysis of the project and possible extensions,” she added.

At the Montreal executive committee, mobility manager Sophie Mauzerolle sounded the same story. “We have to roll up our sleeves to find solutions to minimize project costs. We are designing the Quebec of tomorrow. If we really want to meet the future needs of our populations, we must innovate and find new methods of implementation and financing,” she noted.

A construction site to split?

Asked whether it is realistic to think that a 36 billion project will see the light of day, the acting director of the Regional Metropolitan Transport Authority (ARTM), Ludwig Desjardins, was cautious. “We took something very advanced to reframe it. We are not at the stage of recommending its funding. In fact, the ability to finance remains to be attached,” he replied.

To “better control costs”, Marc Dionne suggests evaluating the implementation of the project in several phases. “It will be to be seen if we can split everything into two, three or four phases. This will have to be assessed on several parameters such as the cost base, mobility, travel times, ”he mentioned.

Many factors can explain such a large bill. First, there is the fact that seven stations originally envisioned as aerial will have to be underground. Then, the “risk provision” – we speak, for example, of prolonged overheating of the market or an earthquake – increases the cost by 50%. Finally, the estimate takes into account inflation, estimated at 30% in the next decade, and tax losses of around 15%. The committee’s initial bill of 17 billion therefore increases to 36 billion.

The connection of the REM de l’Est with Mascouche or Terrebonne has been ruled out for the moment, which greatly disappoints the mayors of northeast Montreal. They had claimed in May the guarantee of an extension outside the island. “We not only condemn our current citizens to suffer the hell of road congestion, but we also jeopardize the creation of housing for the years to come”, illustrated Monday the mayor of Mascouche, Guillaume Tremblay.

Means, benefits

For Jean-Philippe Meloche, professor at the School of Urban Planning and Landscape Architecture at the University of Montreal, the very design of the project shows “that we are still far from realizing it”.

“You have to think about the means at your disposal, and the benefits you seek. The first thing to say, in my opinion, is that we don’t need an underground metro in that area. This is not appropriate for the territory to be served. I would much prefer street trams, with reserved lanes, or high-speed electric buses, ”he argues.

Catherine Morency, holder of the Mobility Chair at Polytechnique Montreal, believes that the $36 billion bill illustrates the extent of the catching up to be done in Quebec. “When you travel around the world, public transport projects are done continuously. They are used to planning new stations. We don’t come up with projects of this magnitude after having done nothing for years. It’s a big bite to take when you don’t do anything for a long time, ”she summarizes.

Most experts are also concerned that the route still has no connection with the city center, even underground. However, Minister Guilbault has warned in recent months that the link with the heart of the metropolis could be considered at a later stage.

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