(Brasilia) The sentence of eight years of ineligibility of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro leaves the Brazilian right without a leader and opens a very uncertain battle for his succession, three years before the next presidential election.
By declaring him ineligible on Friday for “abuse of political power”, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) put Mr. Bolsonaro out of the running for the 2026 presidential election. In question: his “false” information aimed at discrediting electronic voting before his defeat facing left-wing candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at the end of 2022.
He became at 68 the first head of state declared ineligible by electoral justice, a few months after narrowly losing (1.8% difference) against Lula with 58 million votes, 400,000 more than time of his victory four years earlier. Lula, he had been prevented by justice from competing in 2018, before the Supreme Court returned his political rights.
“The right-wing electorate in Brazil is consolidated and, with a weaker Bolsonaro, is in search of a leader. There will be an heir,” said Leonardo Paz, political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
“Voice beater”
“We will continue to work. I am not dead. […] This is not the end of the right in Brazil, ”assured Mr. Bolsonaro on Friday.
The far-right leader, who had succeeded in establishing himself as the undisputed leader of a vast current going all the way to the classic right, sarcastically assured that by rendering its judgment, the TSE had made him a “beater luxury voices.
His Liberal Party (PL), which made him its honorary president this year, is indeed counting on his influence to elect its candidates for the municipal elections of 2024, the first deadline before the presidential election of 2026.
The former head of state has therefore planned to remain active and to increase travel and political meetings.
“He needs to stay in the landscape in front of the media and his supporters”, so as not to be forgotten, analyzes Leandro Consentino, political scientist at the Insper institute in Sao Paulo.
Mr. Bolsonaro, who has planned to appeal his conviction to the Supreme Court, has many other legal appointments awaiting him. In addition to fifteen or so proceedings before the electoral court, the former leader has been targeted by the Supreme Court in five cases, in particular for his alleged role as the inspiration for the January 8 attacks committed by his most radical supporters against the places of power in Brasilia. He faces jail.
Bolsonarism without Bolsonaro
Great unknown: who will be put into orbit by the former president, who until then has been careful not to dub anyone?
The press and the experts have already ventured for months to say who could be the favorite.
Among those who seem to be winning at this stage: the governor of the state of Sao Paulo (south-east) and former Minister of Infrastructure, Tarcisio de Freitas, the governor of Minas Gerais (south-east), Romeu Zema, or even the former Minister of Agriculture and Senator Tereza Cristina, supported by agribusiness, a key sector of the Brazilian economy. Another name that comes up is that of Michelle Bolsonaro, who played a big role in her husband’s latest campaign with female voters.
After the judgment, the allies of the ex-president jostled to express their solidarity with him, like Mr. Freitas, who affirmed that his “leadership cannot be questioned and continues”.
Finally, the electoral disqualification of Jair Bolsonaro does not necessarily mean a weakening of the right against Lula, according to experts.
The question will be whether [la droite] will be able to walk united or if, in the face of the proliferation of names, it is going towards a dispersion”, explains Mr. Consentino.
In parliament, the Bolsonaro camp is now even stronger than it was under his mandate, and has already inflicted severe setbacks on the left-wing president, particularly on environmental issues.
Published by the daily Globo on Saturday and titled “Bolsonarism without Bolsonaro? “, an editorial underlines it: synonymous with a powerful conservative evolution of Brazilian opinion, Bolsonarism “will probably survive” the setbacks of its inspirer because “it is a social phenomenon and not simply electoral”.