After Wagner’s abortive rebellion on Saturday, Ukrainian analysts are betting on the demotivation of Russian troops on the war front in Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin did not really convince, in his intervention on television Monday evening in which he tried to show that he had regained control, after the attempted mutiny organized on Saturday by the mercenaries of Wagner and their leader Evguéni Prigojine. More than ever the power of the Russian president and his staff seems weakened.
>> “I will keep my word”: how Vladimir Putin is trying to regain control of communication after the Wagner rebellion
When Oleksiy Hetman observes the Russian army of today, this expert in military analysis recognizes in it the features of that of the Soviet Union, in which he cut his teeth. “They still practice hazing, and everything about them is based on humiliation and extreme severity like in the days of the Red Army…”, assures the retired major of the Ukrainian army. Before sliding: “That’s why the morale of the troops is always low: they operate on fear”.
“But now that the vertical of power is weakened, they find themselves lost, insists Oleksiy Hetmanand I think there will be an increase in desertions… Because there will no longer be the fear of authority which previously dissuaded them from deserting”.
For its part, the Kremlin denied Tuesday that Vladimir Putin emerged weakened from this rebellion, which caused the worst crisis in Russia since the coming to power of the Russian president, there are more than 20 years. “We do not agree“with these analyses, replied the spokesman of the Russian presidency, Dmitry Peskov, referring to”meaningless discussions” Who “have nothing to do with reality“.”These events have demonstrated the extent to which society consolidates around the president“, he argued.
Decisive in the war in Ukraine
Oleksiy Hetman says the number of desertions from Russian ranks has already doubled in recent months. “For example in the Lugansk region there are the ‘Sturm Z’ units formed by former detainees, which are very closely monitored by the FSB and the Russian national guard, he quotes. But they still deserted en masse, taking weapons and military vehicles.”
The military expert says he is convinced that the attempted mutiny by Wagner’s men will further accelerate this Russian disintegration, on the front, and is counting on it to give an advantage to the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Because the former officer is also realistic: without this, the army of kyiv will have the greatest difficulty in breaking through the very solid defenses of the Russians on the occupied territories.