why Russian warlords Sergei Shoigu and Valeriy Guerassimov are in Yevgeny Prigojine’s sights

“Cowards”, “stinky creatures”, “bunch of bastards”… In recent weeks, Yevgeny Prigojine has had no shortage of insulting qualifiers for attacking the armed arms of Vladimir Putin in the Ukrainian conflict. During his rebellion against the Kremlin, which began on Friday June 23 and aborted 24 hours later, the leader of the Russian militia Wagner had promised to “to liberate the Russian people”, targeting in particular his two sworn enemies: the Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the country’s Chief of Staff, Valeriy Guerassimov.

>> Find the story of the night when the paramilitary group of Yevgeny Prigojine launched hostilities against the Russian army

Yevgeny Prigojine accuses them of being responsible for the death of “tens of thousands of Russians” on the Ukrainian front. Why are they in his sights? Did this rivalry trigger the rebellion? Franceinfo lists the subjects of contention between the head of Wagner and the two associates of the Russian president.

Because Yevgeny Prigojine accuses them of getting in the way of him

For several months, Wagner’s boss has accused the Russian Defense Ministry of hampering the action of its militiamen. The latest example: deadly strikes carried out on Wagner camps in Ukraine, attributed to the Russian army on Friday by Yevgeny Prigojine. The Kremlin immediately denied it, but “If this attack is proven, I think it was the straw that broke the camel’s back”, says Carole Grimaud-Potter, a teacher of Russian geopolitics. This hypothesis was in any case confirmed by the head of Wagner in his speech on Monday: “Despite the fact that we showed no signs of aggression, we were hit by missiles. About 30 fighters were killed. That was the trigger.”

Already, at the beginning of February, Evguéni Prigojine had criticized the “monstrous military bureaucracy” which prevented, according to him, the rapid capture of the city of Bakhmout, in Ukraine, where his mercenaries died by the thousands. He had also threatened to withdraw from the city if they did not receive more ammunition, before claiming to have obtained it. The leader of the militiamen took the opportunity to brandish his victory in this key locality, where “there was only Wagner” among the fighters, he said. “But after a while, when your men drop like flies, the instrument of combat wears out”, explains Philippe Migault, director of the European Center for Strategic Analysis and specialist in Russia. He had blamed his losses on the Russian military, accused of leaving his men to fight alone.

Fighters sent to the pipe breaker, therefore, and it is now more difficult to replace. Moscow has indeed adopted two texts on the sending of prisoners to the front, allowing prisoners to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense in the hope of being pardoned at the end of their mission. The prison was however the breeding ground of men in which Evguéni Prigojine drew to feed his troops. “He sees this as a way for Sergei Shoigu to put a spoke in his wheels”observes Carole Grimaud-Potter.

Because he holds them responsible for Ukraine’s territorial gains in its counter-offensive

Evguéni Prigojine despises the Russian general staff, which he considers incompetent to hold and advance the front. “There is no control, there are no military successes” Russians, he castigated in a video posted on Telegram on Friday. When Sergei Shoigu assured that Ukrainian troops had failed to break through Russian defences, Wagner’s chief called “deep deception” these victorious declarations.

“Prigozhin considers the regular army incompetent on logistics. He also criticizes the generals who are at its head, and more broadly the chain of command.”

Carole Grimaud-Potter, Russia specialist

at franceinfo

In this sense, the chief of staff Valeriy Guerassimov takes for his rank. Sergei Shoigu and him “must be held responsible for the genocide of the Russian people, and the transfer of Russian territories to the enemy”even rebuked Evguéni Prigojine in his video.

Still, Sergei Surovikin, predecessor of Valeriy Guerassimov as chief of staff, had not been the subject of scathing insults. “Guerassimov is a character we have rarely seen in an operations center, he is more of a civil servant than a man in the field like Surovikin whom, I think, Prigojine likes“, suggests Carole Grimaud-Potter. Known for her cruelty, “Surovikine is similar to Prigojine: loud and brutalabounds Philippe Migault. Gerasimov is more of an intellectual, who does not show the same roughness in terms of language and on the ground as Prigozhin and Surovikin.”

Because he felt the noose of the Russian Ministry of Defense tightening on Wagner

The Kremlin’s control was tightening over Yevgeny Prigojine’s men. By Saturday, July 1, the volunteer formations engaged in the war in Ukraine – including Wagner – must have signed a contract with the Ministry of Defence. “The Russian Defense Minister intended to regain functional control of Wagner and put everything in order”, recalls Olivier Kempf, director of the strategic synthesis firm La Vigie. A decision that “nobody accepted (…) because everyone understood that it would lead to a loss of combat capacity and that experienced fighters would serve as cannon fodder”Prigojine said in his audio message on Monday.

According to the Russian investigative journalist, Ksenia Bolshakova, winner of the Albert-Londres 2022 prize for his documentary on Wagner, the leader of the militiamen did not support this loss of autonomy, pushing him to take the decision to organize a rebellion. “It was unacceptable for Prigojine, who especially did not want to find himself under guardianship” of the Minister of Defense, Sergei Choïgou, and the Chief of Staff, Valeriy Guerassimov, she analyzed at the microphone of France Inter.

“He was counting on support from Vladimir Putin, which he didn’t have, that’s when this breaking point happened.”

Ksenia Bolchakova, Russian investigative journalist

at France Inter

And now, what will become of Yevgeny Prigojine? He remains under criminal investigation for his failed rebellion, despite the Kremlin announcing an agreement to drop charges, Russian news agencies reported. As for Wagner, the group’s headquarters, located in Saint Petersburg (northwest), assured Monday that operations were continuing “Normally”.