Belarus | Deal with Wagner chief puts Lukashenko at risk

(Paris) The Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko seems to have won a prestigious victory by negotiating the agreement between Vladimir Putin and Evgeny Prigojine, but he could regret the price when he sees the cumbersome leader of the paramilitary group Wagner arrive at home.

In a surprise statement late Saturday, Lukashenko’s press office said he spent the day negotiating with Prigozhin, with the Russian president’s backing, eventually getting Wagner’s boss to halt his advance on Moscow.

The deal represents a coup for Lukashenko, who has ruled his country with an iron fist for nearly 30 years and has been an outcast in the West since the hotly contested 2020 elections and after his support for the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

The 68-year-old head of state is also facing nagging questions about his health after appearing in very poor shape at ceremonies to commemorate the victory over Germany in World War II in Moscow last month. last. Before disappearing for several days.

At the end of the negotiated agreement, Prigojine must live in exile in Belarus, announced the Kremlin, without specifying whether he would bring with him members of his militia.

The phone call where, according to the Belarusian presidency, Putin thanked Lukashenko, must have sounded like sweet music to the ears of the strong man from Minsk.

But for Katia Glod, of the European Leadership Network in London, Lukashenko has above all inherited a hot potato. “I don’t think that’s Lukashenko’s will. I think it was used by the Kremlin,” she told AFP.

Lukashenko “cornered”

Her presence in Belarus will pose “multiple risks”, she adds, in a country where the loyalty of the security forces is of paramount importance after the 2020 elections, which sparked protests and a brutal crackdown. . “The only advantage that the Belarusian leader could derive would be to use Prigozhin’s men as a personal army against a possible revolt”.

The idea that the leader of the most famous group of mercenaries in the world is settling in Belarus does not delight his neighbors.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, whose country is hosting the NATO summit next month, has warned that the alliance should strengthen its eastern borders “if Prigozhin or part of the Wagner Group ends up in Belarus with plans and intentions unclear”.

Since 2020, Lukashenko has become increasingly dependent on the Kremlin for his political survival, appearing as Putin’s vassal. And in what the opposition sees as a major blow to Belarus’ sovereignty, it now hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons.

“Placing nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory means the slow-motion annexation of Belarus by Russia,” notes William Alberque of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). “I think Lukashenko already feels cornered. Obviously, if Putin says ‘do me a favor’, he will do so in the hope of gaining leverage”.

For the Belarusian opposition, whose leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa went into exile the day after elections which she says she won, Lukashenko’s dependence on Russia makes her decision dangerous.

“Risk bet”

“Prigozhin is not a gift for Lukashenko because Putin, the autocrat, will never forgive the humiliation he has suffered,” says former Belarusian Culture Minister Pavel Latushko, now in opposition.

“It’s a small tactical, artificial and superficial victory for Lukashenko which could turn into a strategic problem”, he added on the Polish opposition channel Telegram Nexta.

Internal repression has intensified, with some 1,500 political prisoners, according to human rights group Viasna.

According to Katia Glod, Lukashenko’s reign rests on two pillars: violence and support from Russia. But “he is clearly worried now, because the Kremlin is not as strong as it seemed to be”, she underlines.

Hanna Liubakova, of the Atlantic Council, notes for her part that Lukashenko’s position could be strengthened by his mediation. But “in the longer term, his regime will suffer the repercussions”.

Because if he showed an “unshakeable loyalty” to the Kremlin, he made a “risky bet” on the rapid victory of Russia in Ukraine. “As Putin’s authority weakens, the Minsk regime may find itself with reduced backing and backing from Russia.”