The Parti Québécois (PQ) is starting with a head start in the riding of Marie-Victorin, according to a Segma Research poll. PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, however, recognizes that the race should tighten before the by-election.
The duty got hold of a probe carried out last week on behalf of the PQ in order to “measure the impact of the appointment of Pierre Nantel as a candidate”. The questionnaire, submitted by telephone to 300 voters in the Longueuil constituency, gives 33% of the PQ candidate’s voting intentions, 15 points ahead of the Coalition d’avenir Québec (CAQ), at 18%.
“In light of these figures, we expect a close fight,” agreed Paul St-Pierre Plamondon in an interview with The duty. It is certain that, when the CAQ announces a candidacy, it will tighten the results. “
Pierre Nantel, who for eight years held the post of federal deputy for Longueuil – Pierre-Boucher, then for Longueuil – Saint-Hubert, recently announced that he would represent the PQ in the by-election of Marie-Victorin. The poll, commissioned by the PQ team, was intended to take a temperature, according to Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon.
“We wanted to measure the impact of a locally anchored application. Obviously, it has an impact, ”observed the PQ leader over the phone.
Due to the sample selected by Segma, the survey’s margin of error is +/- 5.6%. “The study does not measure the support for each party in an equivalent way”, also specifies the firm. “It is obvious that, us, what we measured, it is the notoriety of a candidate”, specified Yves Déziel, principal consultant at Segma.
Joined by The duty, the creator of the survey aggregation site Qc125.com, Philippe J. Fournier, affirmed that the sample is “within the norm”. “What I notice is the firm. They have few political polls, ”observed the one who is also a columnist at News.
“It’s not that we rarely do political polls, but we do little at the national level,” replied Mr. Déziel.
The Nantel effect?
According to the probe, 13% of voters would place their trust in the Quebec solidaire candidate, who has not yet been named. Émilie Nollet, the liberal candidate, would get 10% of the vote. A fifth of the sample does not yet know who to vote for or knows that they will not vote.
Philippe J. Fournier mentions the possibility that the survey “will not [fasse] that raise expectations ”before the campaign. The candidacy of Pierre Nantel, known in the sector, will however weigh heavily in the balance. “There could be a local effect. But is it enough? He asked himself.
Mr. Nantel claims to have received “good feedback »In the field since the announcement of his candidacy. “It gives me the impression that people appreciated how I represented them in Ottawa,” said the resident of the riding.
The former NDP MP is hoping for a campaign “as soon as possible”. He will take the opportunity to talk about the environment and culture. “The poll means that we will be working on the ground right away for a fight that promises to be very interesting,” said Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. We take absolutely nothing for granted. “
Mr. Fournier for his part emits a “huge tweezers”. “It is rare that political parties, whoever they are, run polls that are not favorable to them,” he said.
An election next year
It is the government of François Legault who will determine when the voters of Marie-Victorin elect their next representative. The electoral law obliges Quebec to call a partial ballot within six months of the vacancy of a deputy’s post. Former Marie-Victorin elected, Catherine Fournier, left her seat when she became mayor of Longueuil in November.
In convention last month, Premier Legault confirmed his intention to send a candidacy to the riding of Vieux-Longueuil. “Québec solidaire has announced that they will present a candidate. We have decided that we will present a candidate, probably a candidate, ”he told reporters.
In interview with Press, at the end of this partisan rally, the president of the CAQ, Sarah Beaumier, had not ruled out starting the race. On Friday, Mr. Legault confirmed that he was “in the process of” choosing.