After the overwhelming victory of the no to independence during the third and last self-determination referendum on Sunday in the French archipelago of New Caledonia, a period of dialogue is now beginning which should lead within 18 months to the elaboration of ‘a new status for the archipelago.
18 month transition
On the legal level, the Noumea Accord signed in 1998 under the aegis of the then French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, and which organizes the decolonization of New Caledonia in stages, has been completed.
“An 18-month transition period” must begin to develop a new statute in the Republic.
The objective invoked: “to free themselves from the binary alternative between yes and no” and “to build a common project” in this “new stage”, explained President Emmanuel Macron in a televised address after the proclamation of the results on Sunday .
Two phases are planned: the “assessment” of the Nouméa agreement, before discussions which should “lead to a new constitutional revision”, a revision of the Organic Law and a “project consultation”.
“The State does not intend to confuse speed and haste in this important phase,” Overseas Minister Sébastien Lecornu told AFP on Sunday, stressing however that “certain topical issues are urgent”.
Emmanuel Macron notably mentioned on Sunday “the economic (and) health situation, the recovery, the balance of public accounts”, or “the inequalities which weaken the unity of the archipelago, the nickel strategy, food autonomy and energy, land, taxation ”.
Complicated dialogue
While Mr. Lecornu arrived on site on Friday, the dialogue between all the players promises to be complicated.
“There is certainly on the independence side a feeling of rupture of confidence, of rupture of the given word, on the part of the State, but also of the partners, since a consensus would have been necessary on the date of this third referendum ”, commented on franceinfo radio Carine David, professor of public law at the University of the Antilles, specialist in overseas institutions.
The FLNKS and the nationalists, who shunned the ballot on Sunday that they hoped to see postponed in 2022, have already announced that they will not recognize its result, which “will not be able to constitute a basis for discussion”. They also do not wish to discuss “before the presidential election” of April 2022.
Although “the strong abstention” is “a political factor to be taken into account”, “the legal legitimacy” of the ballot “is not in doubt”, responded for his part the entourage of Sébastien Lecornu.
Emmanuel Macron, for his part, called to welcome the result with “respect and humility”, noting that “the electorate has remained deeply divided”.
To anticipate tensions, the French Overseas Ministry reassured that “the reconciliation of memories, the preservation and enhancement of Kanak culture remained more relevant than ever”.
“Uncertain horizon”
France should “not unilaterally submit to the UN a request for the withdrawal of New Caledonia from the list of non-self-governing territories”, specified a document from July 2021 which has since served as a roadmap.
Arguing that it is “a charge against independence”, the FLNKS rejects this document and more readily refers as a basis for discussion to the report drafted in 2013 by Ferdinand Melin-Soucramanien, associate of public law, and Jean Courtial, advisor of ‘State.
The latter had explored four hypotheses of “the outcome of the Noumea agreement”, one of which was “full sovereignty with partnership”, which echoes the project of the separatists, opposed to “a break with France”.
For Isabelle Merle, historian, research director at CNRS, New Caledonia above all “needs to be secure” and “that dialogue be maintained with all components of the population”.
“A pact for the future (…) that could be a statute which would integrate the idea of an independence-association”, she envisaged Sunday on franceinfo.