Volodymyr Zelensky hailed Friday evening the “heroism” of his troops engaged in “hard fighting”, when they allegedly launched their offensive towards the east, according to Moscow. However, if there are indeed traces of a counter-offensive, it is still in its infancy, say experts.
What there is to know
- “The Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun”, believe many observers, but Kyiv remains silent on its operations;
- “Ukrainian troops have not achieved their objective on any of the battlefields,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said.
- On the Russian side of the border, three people were slightly injured on Friday when a drone fell on a building in Voronezh;
- Floods caused by Tuesday’s destruction of the Kakhovka dam killed at least 13 people;
- “For hundreds of thousands of people in many towns and villages, access to drinking water is severely hampered,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
“To our soldiers, to all who are engaged in particularly hard fighting these days, we witness your heroism and we are grateful for every minute of your life,” Mr. Zelensky said in his evening video address.
The Ukrainian president, conforming to the attitude adopted for weeks by officials in Kyiv, did not mention a counter-offensive or even a specific military operation.
“We focus our attention on all the places where our actions are required and where the enemy can be defeated,” he said.
The Russian army has meanwhile claimed to have repelled several waves of Ukrainian attacks in recent days including armored vehicles. The Kremlin claimed that this was Ukraine’s much-talked-about counter-offensive and that it had been thwarted.
“We can say that this offensive has begun,” President Vladimir Putin said in a video posted on Telegram. According to him, the Ukrainian troops at this stage “have not achieved their objective on any of the battlefields”, but still have a vast “offensive potential”.
“You have to take this statement like any propaganda statement,” says Dominique Arel, holder of the Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa. It would be wrong to say that the counter-offensive by Ukrainian troops is a failure, he believes.
PHOTO PROVIDED BY THE PRESS SERVICE OF THE RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Ukrainian tank in flames, Friday
Maria Popova, a professor in the political science department at McGill University, also agrees. “It is far too early to judge any success,” says the specialist in the post-Soviet space.
Objective: Crimea
“We don’t need Putin to say that the counter-offensive has begun, the Ukrainians themselves have hinted at it,” says Maria Popova.
Mr. Arel, for his part, believes that we are witnessing more of a “beginning of a counter-offensive” than an “all-out counter-offensive”, which has been in the cards for some time now.
The Ukrainian forces’ offensive could aim to identify the most fragile points on the front, where it would be advantageous to attack.
“Kyiv tries different angles to find the best”, believes Mme Popova.
However, she is of the opinion that it will still take several days, even several weeks, before the Ukrainian strategy is clarified. “We know that a counter-offensive is preparing, but we don’t know exactly where it will be concentrated,” she said.
However, she believes that the most likely objective would be to “cut off the land passage” linking Russia to Crimea. “It would make it much more difficult for Moscow to maintain control of the peninsula. [criméenne]. »
Mr. Arel makes a similar observation. “What seems to be the number one strategic interest, he said, is to make a breakthrough on the southern front in an attempt to isolate Crimea. »
While seeking to cut Crimea off from Russian territory, the Ukrainian military may look east in hopes of retaking lost territories. “We see that there is movement in the East and in the South. It’s not concentrated in one place,” he observes.
Slowed down by the floods
The Norwegian seismology institute NORSAR said on Friday it had detected a powerful “explosion” at the location of the Kakhovka dam, destroyed on Tuesday, when it gave way, flooding the Dnieper River basin. This observation reinforces the idea that the hydroelectric dam did not collapse due to damage suffered during past bombings, as claimed by Russia.
PHOTO GENYA SAVILOV, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Ukrainian rescuers during the evacuation of residents of the flooded village of Afanasiivka on Friday in Ukraine
Ukraine accuses Moscow of having mined the engine room of the dam and of having deliberately dynamited it, making a basin of some 600 km impracticable for Ukrainian armor2.
Mr. Arel sees in the destruction of this dam the evidence of a broader strategy on the side of the Russian forces. “Russia is systematically blowing up small dams in the province of Zaporizhya, in the south, to flood the land and curb the Ukrainian army,” he said.
“The assumption that this is a coincidence and that [le barrage] yielded just 24 hours after the first Ukrainian breakthroughs is highly unlikely, he added. There are no coincidences. »
With Agence France-Presse