This text is part of the special Energies section
There has been electricity in the air in the country since the unveiling, a year ago, of Hydro-Québec’s 2022-2026 Strategic Plan, which predicted the end of the surplus after this period. Michael Sabia, its new CEO, will he be facing shortages during his first term? Probably not, according to some specialists, who nevertheless advocate more planning.
“The end of surpluses should hardly change anything for consumers,” assures Pierre-Olivier Pineau, professor at HEC Montréal and holder of the Chair in Energy Sector Management. Hydro-Québec estimates that the additional need for energy necessary for its distribution activity will be felt in 2026 or 2027, but the government corporation is planning new supply contracts to supplement the existing supply (mostly hydroelectric) with the construction of new wind farms. “Barring a major turnaround, technical failures that are difficult to predict or delays in the delivery of planned projects, Quebecers should not run out of electricity in 2027 or 2028 to heat their water or plug in their toasters”, says the professor.
It is more from the side of the landscape that they rub shoulders with than from their electrical outlets that some inhabitants of the region will be able to see the difference. “We have a production capacity of almost 4,000 megawatts (MW) of wind energy. Contracts have already been awarded for an additional 2000 MW and others will be added. New wind farms will appear in the St. Lawrence Valley, in Gaspésie and on the North Shore,” says Pierre-Olivier Pineau.
Risky bets, according to the IEDM
According to an economic note published by the Montreal Economic Institute (IEDM) on May 11, the shortfall to be filled in 2027 will affect both energy (what can be produced over a year) and power (the maximum that can be produced at a specific time). Faced with a growth in electricity demand, which it estimates at 14% (25 TWh) for the period 2022-2032, the MEI considers the solutions envisaged by Quebec to be too late and insufficient.
“It takes about fifteen years to build a dam if we include all the steps necessary for its construction. The renewal of certain turbines, which is also planned, cannot be done before 2028,” says Gabriel Giguère, public policy analyst at the MEI. As for wind power, its intermittency only guarantees 35% of installed power and the environmental approval of new parks by the Régie de l’énergie is not certain, underlines the Institute, which recommends complementary solutions. “An increase in the share of natural gas would reduce the pressure on the need for new supplies,” said Mr. Giguère, who also advocates liberalization of the sector to allow companies to obtain supplies from private producers.
A lack of planning
“A lot of people wonder why we suddenly feel like we’re moving from an era of surplus to an era of scarcity. If Hydro-Québec’s discourse has changed, it is essentially because we have never really planned for the long term in a global way, taking into account the energy transition, our export contracts and our major industrial projects. , deplores Pierre-Olivier Pineau. In 2016, a target of a very significant increase (50 TWh) in electricity had been decided by the Liberal government, then taken over by the CAQ government. “But we didn’t do anything. Otherwise, we wouldn’t be wondering if we risk running out of energy in Quebec,” says the professor.
Planning seems all the more crucial today since Hydro-Québec has concluded major export contracts in the United States and since the Minister of Economy, Innovation and Energy, Pierre Fitzgibbon , has on its desk industrial projects representing the equivalent of 21,000 MW, explains Mr. Giguère. “Last February, we recorded a historic winter peak exceeding 43,000 megawatt hours. It is more important than ever to equip ourselves in 2023 with a solid supply plan”, recommends the analyst.
Energy efficiency down
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