He’s been planning it for months. Kyiv is finally ready to launch its counter-offensive and retake the territory occupied by the Russian army. An operation that could mark a turning point in the war in Ukraine.
Assault on Russian forces could start ‘tomorrow, day after tomorrow or next week’, senior Ukrainian official says Oleksiy Danilov, on Saturday, on the airwaves of the British channel BBC.
He added that his government has a “historic opportunity” which it “cannot lose”.
A few hours earlier, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeri Zalouzhny, had posted a video on social networks showing his troops ready to fight.
“Now is the time to take back what is ours,” the post read.
The launch of a Ukrainian counter-offensive had been in the air for months, recalls specialist Dominique Arel.
“It is clear that it is coming. Now we don’t know when and we don’t know where they’ll hit says the holder of the Chair in Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa.
Will they launch the assault in the region of Zaporijjia, in the south-east of Ukraine? This would be a strategic decision, since they would cut the “land bridge” between Crimea and Donbass, and thus disrupt the supply chains of the Russian army.
Which is not won in advance either, nuance Mr. Arel. “The Russians have been there for a long time and they have built fortifications,” explains the professor.
The Ukrainian army could also decide to strike in the east of the country, but would advance towards territories that it no longer controls since 2014. “It would be a different story,” he underlines.
PHOTO LIBKOS, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Ukrainian soldiers at the front in the Bakhmout region
Does Ukraine stand a chance of regaining the territory it has lost from Russian forces? The conditions are at the very least favorable, believes Dominique Arel. The Ukrainian army is supplied with armored vehicles and long-range missiles. Its soldiers are fired up, as Russian troops have suffered setbacks since the start of the invasion. Road conditions are also better during the summer period.
“To what extent Ukraine will be able to regain territory is the big question. If it makes serious progress, it will change the whole diplomatic, political, military dynamic [de la guerre]. If it does not, it will be the worst scenario for Ukraine,” he concludes.
Russian “large-scale operation”
In order to disrupt an imminent counter-offensive, Russia is preparing a “large-scale operation” in southeastern Ukraine, Kyiv said on Friday.
A statement released by the Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry says Russian forces will strike the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, and then report a radioactive leak to trigger an international investigation.
This would put a pause on hostilities in the region, giving the Russians the respite they need to regroup and prepare before the onslaught of Ukrainian forces.
Kyiv did not provide any evidence to support its accusations.
Drone attack in Kyiv
In Kyiv, a man died after a “massive” attack by Russian drones, its mayor, Vitali Klitschko, announced early Sunday.
“In the capital’s Solomyanskyi district, due to falling drone debris near a gas station, a 35-year-old woman was hospitalized and a 41-year-old man died,” Mr. Klitschko on Telegram.
He had explained earlier that Kyiv’s air defense had shot down “more than 20 drones” heading towards the city.
PHOTO GLEB GARANICH, REUTERS
A cloud of smoke moves across Kyiv’s sky after a drone attack.
The mayor described this new attack as “massive” and called on the population to stay safe, warning against new waves of drones descending on Kyiv “from several directions at once”.
For its part, Russia reported new attacks on its territory on Saturday. Areas on the Ukrainian border are said to have been bombed in particular.
“One person died. He is a security guard at a company in the city. At the time of the strike, he was on the street,” Belgorod Region Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said.
Elsewhere along the Ukrainian border, Kursk region governor Roman Starovoit reported the death of a worker following a mortar fire near the village of Plekhovo.
This man was working on the defense “fortifications” close to Ukraine, he said.
With Agence France-Presse and the BBC