The two political leaders are poles apart. Conservative Danielle Smith hopes to remain Premier of Alberta on Monday evening, while New Democrat Rachel Notley wants to take back the keys of government from her. And the voters, placed before two personalities as different as the platforms of the parties they represent, seem to be torn equally between these two political options. In the center, conservative orphans could have a decisive effect in this election, the outcome of which remains impossible to predict, two days before the vote.
The latest polls conducted on the ground in Alberta suggest that Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party (UCP) may have picked up some feathers following last week’s leaders’ debate. But no pollster ventures to predict victory.
The firm Abacus gives 46% support to the PCU, among voters who intend to vote, against 42% for the New Democratic Party (NDP). Another 10% of the electorate remains undecided.
Abacus respondents are even more divided on their opinion of Mme Smith and M.me Notley: 47% and 46% negative opinions of them, respectively, versus 38% and 39% positive impressions.
Albertans are not used to such close election campaigns. Since 1997, all governments have been elected with a lead of at least 33, or even 67 seats, over their nearest rivals, out of the approximately 80 seats in the Legislative Assembly.
What also distinguishes the current campaign is the number of blunders from which the outgoing Prime Minister has had to defend herself. This has had a repulsive effect for many traditional or moderate conservatives. A few — like former MP Lee Richardson — even publicly announced that they would not vote for the PCU this time around and would support the NDP instead.
” It’s here wild cards [l’impondérable] of this election,” said Lori Williams, professor of political science at Mount Royal University in Calgary. These voters could hold their noses and vote NDP, hold their noses and still vote PCU, or stay home and not vote at all. “All of this will have an impact on the outcome of the vote,” notes the political scientist, especially in tight races as it is looming in Calgary or in the Edmonton region.
From the Nazis to the Indian Act
Throughout her career, at the Wildrose Party and then as a radio host before running for the leadership of the PCU last year, Mme Smith left behind some controversies.
Speaking on her radio show during the pandemic, she compared vaccinated citizens to followers of Nazism who had “succumbed to the charms of a tyrant” and promoted hydroxychloroquine as a cure for COVID-19 (like Donald Trump).
As head of the PCU, she linked Ottawa’s fate for Alberta to that suffered by Indigenous communities and argued that the unvaccinated had been “the most discriminated against group” in her lifetime. She also tried to convince her justice minister to intervene to drop charges against a pastor involved in the Coutts roadblock in the winter of 2022. This earned her a reprimand from the commissioner at Alberta ethics.
Some of its candidates have proven equally controversial. Jennifer Johnson notably compared transgender children to “a little bit of shit” who “ruins” a cohort of students in top-ranking schools.
All of this has led many conservatives to worry that the PCU and its leader no longer represent the conservative movement.
“It’s a conservatism that is unrecognizable to these individuals,” says Professor Williams.
Danielle Smith remains in the race despite everything. The political scientist at the University of Alberta Frédéric Boily believes that it is because she takes advantage of the brand image of the PCU, which remains popular. Mme Smith also did not have to answer for the record of the Conservative government over the past four years, since she only took office in october. This deprived the NDP of a line of attack that would otherwise have paid off, according to Mr. Boily. The New Democrat leader, Rachel Notley, on the other hand, has a difficult economic record of her years in power (2015-2019).
Possible rifts at the federal level
In Ottawa, the government of Justin Trudeau would undoubtedly prefer the election of Mr.me Notley to that of Mme Smith, who opposed several federal laws and passed an Alberta Sovereignty Act.
There are more possible areas of agreement with the NDP. Mme Notley, who had introduced a carbon tax in Alberta, like the PCU opposes the federal energy transition objective, but not its target of a net zero emissions electricity grid by 2035.
Conversely, if Pierre Poilievre is elected in the next election, his government would be more aligned with that of Danielle Smith, whom the Conservative leader has also supported on social networks this week.
Again this year, Alberta experts are avoiding drawing a direct parallel between the provincial election and the federal scene.
The electorate does not vote in the same way, they recall, the Federal Conservative Party (PCC) winning almost all the constituencies, while the electoral map is more shared at the provincial level. The CPC’s electoral base is also less camped on the right, since the party must woo a pan-Canadian electorate.
And above all, the chefs are very different. Mr. Poilievre does not drag the same pans as Mr.me Smith. His competence is not questioned by members of his own party.
Moreover, the more right-wing fringe of the PCU, embodied in the “Take Back Alberta” movement, is very influential, with many candidates and half of the executive positions in the party. The PCC has a few deputies camped on the right, but does not currently experience the same internal tensions, notes Lori Williams.
The political scientist, however, points out that the federal Conservatives are leaning to the right on certain issues to counter the attraction of Maxime Bernier. “Some might see the very right fringe of the PCU go and fear that the same phenomenon will occur at the federal level,” she offers as a warning to the CPC and to Mr. Poilievre.
Frédéric Boily recalls that, even in Alberta, the moderate conservatives are monitoring the speech of their leader, want to ensure that economic stability is protected and want an environmental plan. “If there is an erosion of the Conservative vote [tel que le prédisent les sondages, que le PCU gagne ou perde], this could serve as a warning against overly confrontational discourse. »