Presidential and legislative elections | Turkey at the time of choice

(Istanbul) One howls at the risk of chaos, the other promises the return of spring.

Turkey chooses Sunday between Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the tribune in power for twenty years, and Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, at the head of a broad coalition.

The power of a single man or a collegial leadership, autocracy or the promised restoration of the rule of law: two possible futures, two societal choices are open to this country of 85 million inhabitants, divided as never before. .

Between Erdogan, 69, who is playing to stay in power, and Kiliçdaroglu, 74, it is not a matter of generation, but of style and conviction.

The head of state, from a humble family settled in a popular district of Istanbul on the Golden Horn, a devout Muslim, champion of family values, remains the champion of the conservative majority long disdained by an urban elite and secular.

“Our Leader”

“Erdogan is our leader and we are his soldiers! “, proclaimed on Saturday a fervent supporter, Sennur Henek, 48, waiting for the “Reis”, as his most loyal supporters call him, for his last campaign rally in his home district, Kasimpasa.

Former mayor of Istanbul (1994-1998), Erdogan rose to power in 2003 after the victory the previous year in the elections of the Justice and Development Party (AKP, Islamo-conservative) which he founded.

Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, born into a modest background in Dersim (now Tunceli) in eastern Anatolia, an economist by training and a former senior civil servant, he headed the powerful Turkish Social Security.

Since 2010, he has been the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP, social democrat) founded by the father of the Turkish nation, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who has long promoted hard secularism.

Proof of their respective convictions, Erdogan ended his campaign on Saturday evening in front of the former Hagia Sophia in Istanbul, which he converted into a mosque in 2020, when his opponent was praying in Ankara in front of the mausoleum of Atatürk.

Kiliçdaroglu belongs to the Alevi community, a heterodox branch of Islam considered heretical by strict Sunnis, which has long been seen as a possible obstacle to his election.

But the opposition candidate was able to circumvent this pitfall, in a short video where he tackled the question head-on, seen more than 100 million times on Twitter.

He was also able to reassure some conservatives by promising a law to guarantee women the right to wear the veil, as they are frequently seen in his rallies.

“Bring Back Democracy”

Erdogan, a tireless swordsman, seizes the crowds, raises his voice, uses invective and even insults, calls his opponent a “terrorist”, promoters of LGBTQ+ people, denounces a Western plot, can talk more from one hour on stage up to three times a day.

He defends his balance sheet, the development of the country and infrastructure during his two decades in power – but slips on the economic crisis which is engulfing his country with inflation still above 40% and a currency devalued by half in two years.

Kiliçdaroglu favored the collegiality of his gatherings: frequently accompanied on stage by the very popular CHP mayors of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu and of Ankara, Mansur Yavas, and the leaders of the allied parties, he spoke little.

Deprived of access to most Turkish television channels, which broadcast each of the president’s rallies live, he bet on social networks and developed his vision of the future in short homemade videos, shot in particular in his kitchen and who have been a hit on Twitter.

“Kemal”, as he advertises on his posters, also poses as “Mr. Clean”, denouncing for years the corruption and nepotism which, according to him, have plagued the summits of the State.

“Are you ready to bring democracy back to this country? To bring peace? “, he asked Friday evening at the end of his last meeting in Ankara.

If elected, Kiliçdaroglu intends to return to the presidential palace chosen by Mustafa Kemal in Ankara in 1923, when the Republic was proclaimed. And to abandon the sumptuous palace of more than 1100 rooms built by Erdogan.

Elections in Türkiye, a user’s guide

First-time voters and observers

Some 64 million voters (out of 85 million inhabitants) are registered.

Among them, 3.4 million who have already voted abroad, and 5.2 million young first-time voters who have known only Mr. Erdogan and his autocratic drift since the major protests of 2013 and the coup. Failed state of 2016.

Hundreds of observers are deployed to the 50,000 polling stations open between 8 a.m. (1 a.m. EST) and 5 p.m. (10 a.m. EST), including areas in southern countries devastated by the February 6 earthquake.

The Council of Europe must, for example, send 350 observers, in addition to those appointed by the parties, including the 300,000 mobilized by the opposition.

In 2018, the participation rate had exceeded 86%.

Duel between two camps

Four names appear on the presidential ballots: that of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 69, twenty of whom are at the top of the state, and leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP, Islamo-conservative).

Facing him Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP, social democrat and secular founded by Mustafa Kemal on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire). The 74-year-old former civil servant leads a coalition of six parties ranging from the nationalist right to the liberal center left.

Sinan Ogan, a former far-right deputy, is also in the running, credited with less than 5% of voting intentions in the latest opinion polls.

A fourth candidate, Muharrem Ince, withdrew on Thursday, but too late to see his name removed from the ballots.

If no candidate obtains a majority on Sunday, a second round will take place on May 28.

The challenge of the legislative

They make it possible in a proportional ballot to appoint the 600 members of the Grand National Assembly, a unicameral parliament whose role has been eclipsed since the constitutional reform of 2017 and by the strong presidential regime that resulted from it.

The bloc formed by Mr. Erdogan’s AKP and its allies in the nationalist MHP movement currently holds the majority.

The opposition aims to delight him and even to obtain the two-thirds majority required to modify the Constitution.

Cohabitation is possible but would make governance difficult.

President until 2028?

The president can theoretically only serve for two terms of five years.

Mr. Erdogan can claim to endorse for the third time the supreme office because the mandate carried out after his victory in the presidential election of 2014 under the old system, after 12 years spent as prime minister, was not taken into account.

Mr. Erdogan could therefore in theory remain at the head of the country until 2028.

Mr. Kiliçdaroglu for his part suggested that there would be only one mandate remaining if he is elected on Sunday.