In many ways, the 2023 NHL lottery, presented on Monday, reminds us of the 2015 lottery. Connor Bedard, the eventual first overall pick, is the most coveted player since the other Connor, McDavid.
The consolation prize, Adam Fantilli, is far from bad, he could be a first overall pick in a more ordinary draft, but there is a good margin between his potential and that of Bedard. Like Jack Eichel compared to McDavid.
There might even be a second-row surprise. The winner of the second prize could also opt for the Russian Matvei Michkov, the Swede Leo Carlsson or even the American right-handed center Will Smith.
The main candidates for the 2023 lottery and their chances of success
- 1- Anaheim (25.5%)
- 2- Columbus (13.5%)
- 3- Chicago (11.5%)
- 4- San Jose (9.5%)
- 5- Montreal (8.5%)
- 6- Arizona (7.5%)
- 7- Philadelphia (6.5%)
- 8-Washington (6%)
- 9- Detroit (5%)
- 10- St. Louis (3.5%)
- 11- Vancouver (3%)
The Sabers had the best chance of drafting Connor McDavid in 2015, followed by the Arizona Coyotes. The Oilers had finished at 28e rank in the overall standings, six points ahead of Arizona and eight ahead of Buffalo. The Oilers had an 11 percent chance of drafting first, compared to Buffalo’s 20 percent and Arizona’s 13.5 percent.
McDavid had just amassed 120 points, including 44 goals, in 47 games as a junior in Erie. He had 11 points in seven games as a 17-year-old at the World Junior Championship.
Eichel was almost ten months older. He had therefore already made the jump to the NCAA and scored 71 points, including 26 goals, in 41 games at Boston University, the current club of CH hope Lane Hutson. Eichel would have been eligible for the 2014 draft had he been born six weeks earlier.
Bedard had 143 points, including 71 goals, in 57 games in Regina of the Junior League West. He produced a mind-blowing 23 points in seven games at the World Junior Championship. At 5-foot-10, he doesn’t have McDavid’s 6-foot-1 size or speed, but extraordinary offensive skills.
Like Eichel, Fantilli is a late in the middle jargon. Born in October, he was a few weeks away from being drafted last year. The center from Nobleton, Ont., also joined the university ranks in his year of eligibility and amassed 65 points, including 30 goals, in 36 games at Michigan University.
You should have seen the crestfallen face of Buffalo Sabers general manager Tim Murray when the lottery results were announced, and the triumphant smile of Oilers general manager Craig MacTavish. But Murray, like MacTavish for that matter, didn’t last two years despite everything…
The Oilers had time to fire another general manager, Peter Chiarelli, before finally taking off with McDavid. They missed the playoffs three times in the wonderkid’s first four seasons, but haven’t missed them since 2020, reached the semi-finals last year and are trying to do so again this season.
McDavid already has 850 points in 569 career games. This winter, he was the first player since Mario Lemieux in 1996 to amass at least 150 points in a season.
Eichel takes on McDavid in the second round, but in a Vegas Golden Knights uniform. He was traded last year, remember, by the Sabers in return for Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, a first-round pick in 2022 (Noah Östlund) and a second-round pick in 2023.
The second overall pick is making the playoffs for the first time in eight years in the NHL. He got 66 points in 67 games this winter, for 446 points in 476 career games, but he is said to be more responsible defensively.
Top 15 Picks of 2015
- 1- Connor McDavid (Edmonton)
- 2- Jack Eichel (Buffalo)
- 3- Dylan Strome (Arizona)
- 4- Mitch Marner (Toronto)
- 5- Noah Hanifin (Carolina)
- 6- Pavel Zacha (New Jersey)
- 7- Ivan Provorov (Philadelphia)
- 8- Zach Werenski (Columbus)
- 9- Timo Meier (San Jose)
- 10-Mikko Rantanen (Colorado)
- 11- Lawson Crouse (Florida)
- 12- Denis Gurianov (Dallas)
- 13-Jakub Zboril (Boston)
- 14-Jake DeBrusk (Boston)
- 15-Zach Senyshyn (Boston)
It was a special draft. The third choice, Dylan Strome, had obtained 115 points, but within the club of McDavid. He’s changed clubs twice since then and finally seems to have found a niche in Washington, where he’s just had his career-best season with 65 points.
Mitch Marner’s short stature scared some clubs, but then-Leafs scouting director Mark Hunter put his fist on the table and we finally listened. Fortunately.
That year, the Bruins launched a bold reset by trading Milan Lucic and Dougie Hamilton to end up with three first-round picks and three second-round picks. Only two, Jake DeBrusk (14e) and Brandon Carlo (37e) broke through, but they didn’t suffer too much anyway.
Potential top players were drafted from 16e row, among others Mathew Barzal, Thomas Chabot, Kyle Connor, Joel Eriksson-Ek, Brock Boeser, Roope Hintz, Kiril Kaprizov and Sebastian Aho.
The Dallas Stars generally draft very well, but they can make mistakes like everyone else. It’s Denis Gurianov, the same striker obtained for Egveni Dadonov by the Canadian at the trade deadline, on 12e rank on the list above, in front of all these young first. They recovered well with Hintz in the second round…
The 16 best counters of the 2015 vintage (with the rank of selection)
- 1- Connor McDavid (1) 850 points/569 games
- 2- Mitch Marner (4) 554 points/507 games
- 3- Mikko Rantanen (10) 513 points/490 games
- 4- Sebastian Aho (35) 469 points/520 games
- 5- Jack Eichel (2) 446 points/476 games
- 6- Kyle Connor (17) 424 points/466 games
- 7- Mathew Barzal (16) 362 points/420 games
- 8- Travis Konecny (24) 332 points/448 games
- 9- Timo Meier (9) 330 points/472 games
- 10-Brock Boeser (23) 311 points/398 games
- 11-Roope Hintz (49) 245 points/213 games
- 12-Zach Werenski (8) 245 points/416 games
- 13- Noah Hanifin (5) 239 points/598 games
- 14-Pavel Zacha (6) 236 points/468 games
- 15- Dylan Strome (3) 235 points/354 games
- 16-Kiril Kaprizov (135) 234 points/203 games
The lottery will be presented Monday evening at 8 p.m. in Secaucus, New Jersey, with the participating general managers in attendance. Canadian CEO Kent Hughes will speak to reporters after the results.
The happiness of the Panthers, the misfortune of the CH
How many Canadiens fans had fun this winter with the NHL lottery simulator and won first prize with the choice of the Florida Panthers (obtained last year for Ben Chiarot), ranked among the ten worst clubs of the League at some point?
They consoled themselves at the end of the season with the 17e overall pick by virtue of the Panthers’ overall standings and a likely first-round loss to the mighty Boston Bruins.
But after their surprising comeback against Boston, the Panthers have just won the first two games of their second-round series in Toronto.
Two more wins and the Panthers advance to the conference final, and as a result this pick at 17e rank drops to 28e rank, since the four participants in the four aces get the four worst picks in the draft. This pick will slide to 31e rank if Florida makes final and 32e rank if they win the Stanley Cup.
Some Montrealers hate the Maple Leafs so much that the Canadiens’ selection rank doesn’t matter to them…