What will Quebec’s territory look like in 2050? Our journalists spoke to experts to imagine the possible avenues, and what can be implemented today to achieve this vision.
Let’s project. When a gale hits Quebec, 10,000 wind turbines begin to spin. These white giants rise in large numbers in the St. Lawrence Valley. At their foot, we continue to cultivate the land. In the mountainous landscapes of Charlevoix or Gaspésie, wind turbines also do their work. Birds break their necks and caribou knock their legs on it, but the electricity generated is clean. The north of the province is also invested. New pylons are erected to connect the hundreds of new wind farms to urban centers.
In 2050, Quebec will need more electricity. Hydro-Québec and the government are talking about an additional 100 terawatt hours (TWh) per year, which is equivalent to about half of the state corporation’s current production. Some analysts think the needs will be even greater. Others argue that they could be weaker if Quebec decides to wean itself from its “energy drunk” state. Everyone agrees on one thing: wind power will play a huge role in this future energy landscape.
On the land — on an electric train? —, the mills of the XXIe century will not go unnoticed. Let’s assume that these wind turbines alone must generate the additional 100 TWh. Taking into account their typical performance, they should then total 40,000 megawatts (MW) of installed power. (The power corresponds to the quantity of energy supplied per second.) Considering an average power of 4 MW per wind turbine, 10,000 propellers would be needed. These could be spread across, say, 250 wind farms of 40 wind turbines each. This pharaonic project should be completed in less than three decades.
And the space used? A distinction must be made between the direct footprint – the foot of the propeller, the buildings, the power lines, the service roads – and the total surface area of the wind farms. According to researchers from Princeton University, who led a large project on the decarbonization of the United States in 2021, one can deploy 2.7 MW of power per square kilometer of wind farm. Installing 40,000 MW in Quebec would therefore involve deploying wind farms over approximately 15,000 km2 : the equivalent of 30 times the area of the island of Montreal.
Relying so heavily on wind energy would have major repercussions on landscapes and nature, warns Pierre-Olivier Pineau, holder of the HEC Montréal Chair in Energy Sector Management. According to him, Quebec would benefit from changing course now to limit new production facilities. “When we look at the 100 TWh, we are not in the bare necessities,” he says. We are not planning an overhaul of our modes of transport, our buildings, our mode of consumption. We just continue to be energy ogres. »
Where would the wind turbines be located? In its most recent call for tenders, Hydro-Québec invites promoters to submit projects at strategic locations on its network, in southern Quebec, where the transmission infrastructure is able to absorb the additional power. We imagine that in the medium term, the electrical transmission network will have to be improved to connect more wind turbines. Installing the propellers near people will shorten the power lines, but cause more opposition. In an “all wind-powered” future, one can think that the promoters will also dip into the windy deposit of more northern territories.
Bernard Saulnier, a retired researcher who has devoted his career to wind energy at the Hydro-Québec Research Institute, wants to put into perspective the real influence on the territory of an intensive deployment of wind energy. . “With the wind power sector, the use of the territory remains essentially preserved,” he points out. We can continue to do agriculture or forestry below. » Often, the artificialization of the ground does not exceed 1% of the territory occupied by the entire wind farm.
sun and water
What will be the effect of other energy sectors on Quebec’s territory in 2050? A priori, solar energy is not promised a bright future. Photovoltaic panels could hatch on the roofs of certain buildings. However, the chances of seeing “fields” of solar panels, like elsewhere in the world, are slim. Solar energy is poorly suited to peak needs, during very cold weather. At 6 p.m. in January, it gets dark…
There remains the elephant in the room: hydroelectricity. The Premier, François Legault, cultivates the dream of being among the builders of dams in Quebec. Most specialists believe, however, that the hydraulic potential of the province is less attractive than before. From the point of view of social acceptability, it would be difficult to create such large reservoirs as in the past: the “battery” effect of potential hydroelectric power stations would therefore be less interesting. Moreover, the “good” rivers that remain are increasingly remote, which increases construction costs.
We can therefore imagine that in 2050, there will be very few new large hydroelectric power stations, if any. However, this is nothing to reassure André Bélanger, the general manager of the Fondation Rivières. “What worries me at the moment is the race forward, towards ever more energy production. And the citizen resistance that will appear when we have wind turbines everywhere. What worries me is that we are not asking the right questions as a society at the moment,” he says, pleading for a change in our lifestyles.
Among the hydroelectric complexes that could see the light of day in the coming decades, Mr. Bélanger cites the Petit Mécatina River (Côte-Nord) — where Hydro-Québec is precisely conducting preliminary studies —, the Magpie River (Côte-Nord) and the Great Whale River (Baie-James). If ever this last project were to go ahead, the fairly flat territory of this region would involve the flooding of nearly 1700 km2. The Crees strongly opposed this project at the end of the XXe century, and there is no indication that they would have changed their minds.
The Rivers Foundation has recently applied itself to counting the “great wild rivers” of Quebec which, according to it, are part of the “world heritage”. The criteria used: these rivers must have a flow of at least 1000 m3/second, a length of at least 100 km and a catchment area of at least 1000 km2. There are 48 of these large rivers, and 23 are already blocked by a dam. If people ever “bruised” against wind turbines near their homes, we could artificialize other of these gems of white water, fears Mr. Bélanger.
“If we just add wind turbines, solar power and dams, Quebecers will quickly realize that it’s expensive, that it takes up space, that it’s difficult to gain social acceptance, and that there has impacts on nature. If we were a little more responsible, we would move towards energy efficiency solutions,” suggests Mr. Pineau. What to see another landscape in 2050.