the demographic and economic impact of the war in Ukraine

Funny paradox: Russia is in recession under the effect of the sanctions (admittedly the Russian economy is holding up better than expected, but the GDP fell by 2 to 4% last year depending on the sources), and at the same time , unemployment is historically low. Only 3.5% of the active population is unemployed, one point less than 18 months ago. And this is due not to the overflow of job offers, but to the weakness of the demand.

Even Vladimir Putin acknowledged it this week. Russia is experiencing a serious shortage of workers in many areas, explained the head of the Kremlin, although not always very inclined to point out the weaknesses of its economy. He therefore explained that it was necessary to make better use of the workforce of regions where unemployment is higher, to accelerate the automation of certain sectors, and above all to strengthen training. It is indeed on the most qualified positions that the tension is the strongest.

Explanations: the conflict in Ukraine and the decline in the birth rate

According to a recent study by the consulting firm Finexpertiza, Russia lost 1.3 million young workers between December 2022 and December 2023. It is especially among those under 35 that the labor market has dried up. And suddenly we can clearly see the reasons for this fall: the flight of young men wanting to escape mobilization or, on the contrary, the mobilization of other young parties in Ukraine deprive the Russian economy of hundreds of thousands of workers.

Added to this is a demographic problem that is not new: there are not enough births. A recent study by the Moscow School of Economics estimates that Russia needs around one million migrants every year to maintain its population. If Russia did not welcome any more migrants, its population in 2100 would be 67 million inhabitants, that is to say half of what it is today. The war in Ukraine amplifies a phenomenon that risks driving the Russian economy into the wall.