The Sages will let it be known on Friday whether or not they validate, and to what extent, the pension reform. A decision eagerly awaited by the unions, because it will largely shape the future of the protest movement.
“Everything is not going to stop on Friday evening, that’s for sure. But in what form will the movement continue?” This is the question posed by Cyril Chabanier, president of the Confederation of Christian Workers (CFTC). Like the government, opponents of the pension reform have their eyes riveted on the Constitutional Council, which must end the suspense on Friday April 14, the day after a twelfth day of mobilization. Will the Elders censor the reform? Only a part? Will they give a green light to the shared initiative referendum (RIP), dear to the left and the unions, who want to submit to a national consultation a bill limiting the retirement age to 62?
In the memory of constitutionalists, few decisions of the Constitutional Council have been the subject of as much attention as that of Friday. It will largely shape the rest of the mobilization. “We have the feeling that he has the keys to the crisis somewhat in hand. If he ever validates the text, he deepens it and prevents a possible resumption of social dialogue. If he invalidates it, he weakens the executive to the point that governing might be impossible”summarizes Benjamin Morel, lecturer in public law.
In this context, Thursday’s mobilization is experienced as “the der of the ders” of the first phase of opposition to the pension reform. “It’s necessary prove to the Constitutional Council that a majority of our fellow citizens are still opposed to the reform, and that every flaw it finds in the text will be welcome, believes Cyril Chabanier, of the CFTC. It is also an additional pressure for the government, to show him that if the Council validated the reform the next day, it would be better not to apply it.”
Towards demobilization?
For its part, the government is playing the quiet force card, even if “everything is suspended until April 14”, recognizes a minister with France Télévisions. On France 2, Olivier Véran, the government spokesperson, said to himself “confident” about the decision of the Elders, believing that it would be “the culmination of the democratic journey”. “When the Constitutional Council has rendered its decision, the CFDT will comply and change its mode of action in relation to the demonstrations”also wants to believe a heavyweight of the majority, while the inter-union has planned to meet Friday evening.
In the event of a decision favorable to the government, the CFDT will not question the decision of the Elders, warned Laurent Berger, its secretary general. “There will be no CFDT game consisting of saying: ‘It’s disgusting, the Constitutional Council is made up of so and so'”, assured the union leader on LCI. However, it is not certain that this marks the end of the movement opposing the reform.
“Recognizing that the decision of the Constitutional Council is legally valid is not finding that it is a good decision and stopping everything.”
Cyril Chabanier, President of the CFTCat franceinfo
Will the major national demonstrations remain the main mobilization tool if the Constitutional Council validates all, or almost all, of the text? “We will decide it together”with the inter-union, “but it is clear that the CFDT will not hold demonstrations for six months” in this case, replied Laurent Berger on LCI. “We have to see if we are able to mobilize, the decision of the Council could create a little demobilization among some, and we arrive at a time of school holidays”says Cyril Chabanier.
Towards strikes that are getting bogged down?
Dominique Corona, Deputy Secretary General of Unsa, is convinced that the intersyndicale “will continue to fight this reform” by activating other levers. Among the tools available to opponents: “Get the 4.7 million signatures needed for the RIP if it is validated, take legal action against the decrees implementing the law…”, he says. Partial censorship of the compensatory measures of the reform, such as the index seniors or the CDI seniors, would also offer the unions the opportunity to challenge the executive again, on the grounds that “the balance of the text that the government claimed to have is no longer respected”, as explained by Marylise Léon, number 2 of the CFDT, on franceinfo. In this case, Laurent Berger suggested that the President of the Republic take up Article 10 of the Constitution, “to move towards a new reading in the National Assembly”. The latter allows the Head of State, before the promulgation of the law, to propose to Parliament a new deliberation.
The most socially inflammable scenario would be that of the validation of the reform, but not of the RIP. If the inter-union ensures that it will continue to speak with one voice, the organizations could nevertheless struggle to contain their base. Questioned by AFP, Christophe Aubert, coordinator of the CGT at Exxon Mobil, said he was ready to go “until the withdrawal of the reform”. “Whether the Constitutional Council validates or not, it will not change our fight”, he said, adding that the Donges refinery, near Saint-Nazaire, called for a 48-hour strike on Thursday and Friday. Parisian garbage collectors are also called upon to resume the strike on Thursday. “We will see what the inter-union says. But we, we feel on the ground that the employees do not want this law”said Fabien Dumas, of SUD-Rail, to AFP.
Towards popular anger?
As was somewhat the case with the entry into play of youth after the use of article 49.3, the movement could also partly escape the inter-union. “Some of our fellow citizens, especially in small and medium-sized towns, where many demonstrations took place, felt humiliated by the way the government acted. This humiliation can turn into anger, and nothing says that it will go out, because the Constitutional Council and Laurent Berger have spoken”also notes the historian Stéphane Sirot, specialist in social movements.
“We could see the rebirth of spontaneous mobilizations on Friday evening, perhaps even more important, because most of those who mobilized against the reform will no longer have a political or institutional horizon.”
Stéphane Sirot, historianat franceinfo
An overflow in which Cyril Chabanier does not believe: “The trade unions have been holding the mobilization well for three months, I don’t think it can escape us now, even if small more radical groups can attempt actions.” He nevertheless warns the government against a new social crisis, like that of the “yellow vests”, in the medium term, if it does not back down on the pension file.
“People’s anger is not going to stop overnight.”
Cyril Chabanier, President of the CFTCat franceinfo
Failing to win the case in the street, the mobilization could however die out after a few days, also considers the historian Stéphane Sirot. Popular anger could then be expressed at the polls in the next elections, with “a defeat for the majority”he imagines.