So this counter-offensive Ukrainian, it’s coming ? Not so fast, say the Kiev authorities, who have recently seen a proliferation of pseudo-announcements, analyzes or leaks of information… according to which, this spring, in May or June, the great counter-offensive will be launched which will liberate Ukraine from the yoke of the Russian army.
The idea that such an operation is being prepared, without anyone knowing when or where the breakthrough will be attempted, is correct.
It is not hidden by the first interested parties. Since the beginning of 2023, kyiv’s Western backers have made repeated announcements about sending equipment for this specific purpose. And then, it is an imperative of the Ukrainian war: there is no question, for Kiev, of “recognizing the new reality on the ground”, to use the formula of the Moscow regime when it calls for “negotiations”. which would amount to freezing and rubber-stamping Ukrainian losses. This would allow Russia – at an obvious moment of weakness on the ground – to regain its strength.
The idea is right and obvious as a necessity, but the Ukrainian authorities do not want to sell the skin of the Russian bear before having killed it. Not only, they say, the conditions for such a counter-offensive are not met, but even when they are, it will not necessarily be the battle that will decide all (the) war.
“We must counter in every possible way the perception that this counter-offensive will be the decisive battle of the war,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an interview with the FinancialTimes March 29.
As for Oleksii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence, on March 27 he underlined on Estonian television ERR “the strong pressure” that his country is receiving from Westerners (governments, intelligence services, public opinion) to “go out there and get the job done” ASAP.
In all these declarations, it is obviously necessary to make allowance for pretenses and false information, constitutive of war. When it comes to great feints, we remember that last September, Kherson was announced… and it was Kharkiv (the city of Kherson was taken over later, in November).
What are the conditions for a counter-attack that could regain at least as much ground as those of September and November?
There are the famous deliveries of weapons, vehicles and ammunition… If we look at the super-tanks finally announced in January after much hesitation (German, American), here is where we were, at the end of March, subject to the secrecy which can always surround this kind of operations: between the requests of the Ukrainian generals (250 vehicles), the added promises of 11 countries (150) and the actual deliveries (perhaps 25 at the latest news), we are still far from the mark.
There’s the weather, with the spring thaw and mud, which can represent major, crippling impediments… which — like the previous factor — militates in favor of a wait of another two or three months.
Crucial factor, finally: the state of the enemy troops… There, the news is good for the Ukrainians. The siege of the city of Bakhmout by the Russians (regular troops + mercenaries), and more generally of the Donbass front, has generally failed, although Moscow has “pulled it all the way”.
The winter super-offensive went “pschitt”; the losses were immense (on both sides, but even worse for the Russians), the city was not (entirely) taken: which de facto is a Russian failure. Exhaustion, stock shortages, lack of cannon fodder, quarrels between staffs: repeated analyzes from sources such as the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington all point in this direction.
This gives Kiev, in this bloody and inhuman war unleashed by Vladimir Putin, reasons for hope and a window of opportunity, before the Russian troops and equipment do not “recover” in the fall.
A summer window… towards liberation?
François Brousseau is an international affairs columnist at Ici Radio-Canada. [email protected]