Scottish separatists on Monday chose Humza Yousaf to succeed Nicola Sturgeon as the new prime minister, promising to lead Scotland to independence this generation.
Aged 37, this close friend of Nicola Sturgeon inherits the delicate mission of reviving a losing independence movement which is coming up against London’s stubborn refusal to authorize the holding of a new referendum.
Until then Minister of Health, he became the first Muslim to lead a major political party in the United Kingdom. He is to be elected Prime Minister on Tuesday by the local Parliament in Edinburgh.
“We will be the generation that will achieve independence for Scotland,” Humza Yousaf said in his speech, stressing that “the people” of Scotland “need independence now, more than ever”.
After an internal ballot triggered by the surprise resignation of Nicola Sturgeon last month after eight years in office, he wins against Finance Minister Kate Forbes, with controversial Conservative positions, and Ash Regan, a former member of local government.
No candidate having collected more than 50% of the votes in this ballot where the voters rank the candidates in order of preference, he won the second count, collecting 52.1% of the votes. More than 50,000 SNP members took part in the vote, for an electorate of just over 72,000 members.
The local government of Scotland, a territory with 5.5 million inhabitants, is responsible for many subjects including education, health and justice. More broadly, this election has potentially serious consequences for the future of the United Kingdom, whose divisions between its four constituent nations (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) have been aggravated by Brexit.
Declining support for independence
But support for independence, at the heart of the program of the SNP, a party anchored on the left, is stagnating.
According to a YouGov opinion poll on March 13, 46% of respondents are in favor of independence (against 50% last month). Including the undecided, the proportion drops to 39%.
In the referendum held in 2014, 45% of Scots voted for independence.
The independence cause had however been revived by Brexit, which was opposed by 62% of Scots, the SNP seeing in a break with London the way to return to the European Union.
Humza Yousaf says too much time has been spent pointing out the failures of the British government in London and not enough time creating a vision for an independent Scotland. He pledged on Monday to launch a grassroots movement for self-determination.
But the call for independence launched by the new Prime Minister was opposed on Monday to a closed door on the part of the United Kingdom government.
Scots and Britons as a whole want politicians “who focus on the issues most important to them: reducing inflation, dealing with the cost of living crisis and reducing waiting lists” in the health, said a spokesman for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, adding that the latter “looks forward to working” with Humza Yousaf.
Continuity
According to the Ipsos institute, Kate Forbes was the favorite candidate of the Scots, with 27% of favorable opinions, against 22% for Humza Yousaf and 14% for Ash Regan.
But within the SNP, Humza Yousaf came out on top, with 38%. Kate Forbes was not far behind with 37% (22% for Regan).
Kate Forbes had a rocky start to the campaign due to her conservative views. She is a member of the Free Church of Scotland, which opposes same-sex marriage and abortion.
Humza Yousaf embodied continuity with progressive positions on social issues and anchored on the left on the economy, wishing for example to increase taxes on the richest. He was, however, criticized for his record in his various posts in the Scottish government.
Nicola Sturgeon, 52, announced her resignation on February 15 to everyone’s surprise, explaining that she no longer had the necessary energy after eight years in power.
She also found herself in trouble after London blocked a controversial law making it easier to change gender. This law was to allow the recognition of gender change, without medical advice and from the age of 16.
The British Supreme Court also ruled last year that the Scottish government could not organize a new referendum without London’s agreement.
But Nicola Sturgeon said she had “full confidence” that her successor would succeed in leading Scotland to independence.