The lightning visit that French President Emmanuel Macron has just made to a few Gulf countries confirms that nothing has really changed in the relations of Western countries with authoritarian regimes in the Middle East.
During his recent tour, Macron first made a stopover in the United Arab Emirates to sign a contract for the sale of 80 Rafale fighter jets and military helicopters, all worth some twenty billion dollars. .
These arms sales and their economic benefits are timely, on the eve of French presidential elections, scheduled for April 2022.
Macron then traveled to Doha, Qatar, to thank the Emir for facilitating the departure of Afghans who had worked for the French before the Taliban returned to Kabul.
More controversial was his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, suspected of being behind the villainous 2018 assassination of opponent Jamal Khashoggi, not to mention the human catastrophe in Yemen.
In Riyadh, the French president is said to have tried to convince him to contribute to a solution to the Lebanese chaos.
Macron explained that his talks with bin Salman were justified, because Saudi Arabia was a key player. And that all subjects had been discussed, including those that did not please his host.
Here too, contracts have been concluded with French companies.
With this rapid tour, Paris is probably trying to take advantage of the loss of American and British influence in the Gulf, once their commercial and strategic precinct. It may also aim to compensate for the one that Paris no longer has in the Maghreb.
These countries where he has made a stopover have nothing to lose by strengthening relations with other players such as France.
Let us remember that during the Arab Spring in 2011, some Western leaders declared that the traditional support their countries gave to dictatorships to maintain stability in this region was no longer appropriate. Repression and poverty had contributed to bringing populations to the streets. We had to change our approach.
Washington, Paris, London and even Ottawa believed they were seeing democratic breakthrough and even encouraged it with varying degrees of energy.
Past period
This period therefore seems to be over. President al-Sisi, in Cairo, Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, and the oil monarchies appear well in the saddle. Even Tunisia, the only survivor of this freedom movement, is going through a period of questioning about its political future.
Last year, during a visit to Paris, Macron even discreetly decorated Egyptian President al-Sissi with the Grand Cross of the Legion of Honor, while the raïs’ record in terms of human rights was very poor, to put it mildly.
It is true that Egypt is a big customer of the French armaments sector.
Like other nations, France has concluded, with reason, that the pressure exerted for respect for human rights, if not for the start of democratization, will have done little in the Middle East.
Authoritarian regimes have regained confidence. They can do whatever they want without a lot of consequences. Some countries like Canada may tweet their concerns, to clear their conscience, this has little effect.
In this context, it is the race for contracts that has resumed, without ulterior motives. The French want their share of the pie. If it’s not us, they’ll be competitors, they tell themselves.
Realpolitik and the economic windfall are back. The beautiful resolutions for change will not last long. The page is turned. At least on the French side.
And it is the local populations who will pay the price, because this legitimation that the potentates receive establishes their authority and encourages them to continue in repression and corruption. With complete impunity.
Sad reality on the eve of Biden’s next democracy summit. We will surely hear fine speeches. We’re going to have a good laugh in Beijing and Moscow!