China and Russia, which had concluded before the invasion of Ukraine an agreement emphasizing their “boundless friendship”, began a three-day bilateral summit on Monday to make it possible to publicly reaffirm their ideological and economic closeness.
Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanged for more than four hours with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, during an “informal” one-on-one which will be followed on Tuesday by official discussions aimed at “deepening” cooperation. between the two countries.
The arrival of the Chinese leader comes days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against his counterpart for his alleged role in the forcible transfer of thousands of Ukrainian children to Russian territory.
Maria Popova, a political scientist at McGill University, notes that the Russian president hopes to take advantage of the current summit to show that he is not “totally isolated” on the international scene and to obtain military support from Beijing.
China wants to ensure for its part that Russia has the means to continue its offensive in Ukraine while avoiding appearing to endorse the intervention, notes the researcher.
“The goal is to support the Russian regime, but not too openly. It’s a question of balance,” says M.me Popova, who disregards Beijing’s declared willingness to play the role of mediator in the Ukrainian conflict.
The Chinese regime presented a 12-point peace plan a few weeks ago which was poorly received by Western countries supporting Kyiv, led by the United States.
He advocates in particular the adoption of a ceasefire and the lifting of unilateral economic sanctions, two measures playing into Moscow’s hands, notes Mme Popova.
PHOTO ASSOCIATED PRESS
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin
A question of territorial integrity
Guy Saint-Jacques, Canada’s former ambassador to China, thinks that Beijing is a “very interested mediator” who wants first and foremost to ensure that the Russian regime will not be defeated in Ukraine.
The announcement of a unilateral ceasefire by Moscow with the support of Beijing could increase, he said, the pressure on Kyiv, which refuses to consider peace talks as long as Russian troops remain present on his territory.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned on Monday that the “world should not be fooled” by any effort by Moscow and Beijing to “freeze the conflict” without regard to preserving the territorial integrity of the country. ‘Ukraine.
Mr. Saint-Jacques notes that the plan defended by Beijing evokes the need to respect the sovereignty of the countries, but rejects the blame for the crisis in Ukraine on NATO by echoing the claims of the Kremlin.
Yann Breault, a Russia specialist attached to the Royal Military College Saint-Jean, notes that the two countries are united in their opposition to the United States and want to act together to ensure the emergence of a multipolar world.
Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Beijing has, he says, significantly increased its purchases of Russian oil and gas, amplifying Moscow’s dependence on it while allowing it to offset the sanctions put in place by Western countries. .
However, Xi Jinping’s regime has so far refused to officially supply arms to Russia, which is insistently demanding them.
Not formally excluded
Michael Allen, a political science professor attached to Boise State University in Idaho, notes that the Chinese regime has not formally ruled out this possibility and may be tempted to proceed if it feels that “Moscow does not no longer has the capacity to continue the war in Ukraine or risks losing it”.
Beijing, Mr. Allen said, welcomes the fact that the United States is forced to commit considerable military resources to support Kyiv and must at the same time limit its support for Taiwan, which China hopes to eventually reintegrate into her lap.
The United States sounded the alarm a few weeks ago about the possibility of the Chinese government sending arms to Russia, prompting denials from Beijing, which publicly insists on the need for a negotiated settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.
According to Wall Street Journalthe Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, could have a telephone exchange with Xi Jinping following the current summit.
Kyiv hopes that the Chinese regime will use its influence to convince Moscow to withdraw its troops, but there is no indication that the Kremlin is considering such a scenario, notes Mme Popova.
“Russia has not reassessed its targets. It shows no will to end the war,” she said.