despite the war, the very good foreign trade figures… apparently

The Russian administration had stopped publishing foreign trade statistics for almost a year. All this data was classified, allowing the Russian power to say what it wanted, and above all that everything was fine. But finally Russian customs announced this week that they were going to publish foreign trade statistics again, in particular because certain international organizations are now able to assess Russian data.

These figures indicate that Russia’s trade surplus increased last year by 8.1%, driven in particular by a record year for hydrocarbon exports: oil and gas revenues reached almost 384 billion dollars in 2022, a record level since 1995 (before this date, we have no reliable figure). This record, Russia owes it to the high prices of gas, and especially of oil, which weighs very heavily in the Russian trade balance.

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A good result which can also be explained by the drop in imports

If the trade balance is in surplus, it is also because imports have collapsed: -12%. It’s huge, and it’s not going to get any better: we learned this week that Turkey, which has become a hub of trade to Russia in recent months to circumvent embargoes and brands that no longer want to export to Russia, apparently began to block exports to Russia. This will cause additional problems.

Moreover, the oil and gas manna will be reduced. Prices have fallen sharply. The Russian oil embargo is starting to take effect, and gas exports have collapsed because some countries no longer buy it, but also because the Russians have turned off the tap, not to mention Nord Stream problems . According to the International Energy Agency, Russian hydrocarbon exports fell in January 2023 by 38% compared to January 2022. And 2023 is certainly not shaping up to be a record year.