The Russian invasion of Ukraine provided a new weapon in the arsenal of populists in Eastern Europe: the fear of war.
More than a year later, no end to the conflict is in sight. And some politicians don’t hesitate to take advantage of the anxiety it provokes to suggest that support for Ukraine could drag their country into war.
From Prague to Sofia, bogus claims that governments will announce general mobilization or simply “send our sons to the meat grinder” have dominated political discourse.
“Fear is a primary emotion, and the politics of fear is the oldest tactic there is,” says Jiri Priban, professor of law at Cardiff University. It is part of all political campaigns. »
An alarmism which is having success in Slovakia, a country bordering Ukraine, where more and more men are rejecting the idea of performing their military service.
Before the Russian invasion, Slovakia, a member of NATO, counted some 1,500 conscientious objectors annually. Their number rose to more than 40,000 last year, according to the Ministry of Defence.
This wave of panic among young Slovaks was encouraged by former Prime Minister Robert Fico, who campaigned criticizing NATO, the United States and the “Ukrainian fascists”.
For Mr. Fico, the conflict between Moscow and kyiv does not concern the Slovaks, because it is a “war between the United States and Russia”.
“Fertile ground”
Taking up pro-Kremlin propaganda, Robert Fico accused the current Slovak government of being the lackey of the United States.
The scare tactic seems to be bearing fruit: Mr. Fico’s party, the Smer, regularly comes first or second in the polls ahead of the legislative elections scheduled for September.
“Slovakia is extremely vulnerable to disinformation, and the Russians have found extremely fertile ground for their propaganda here,” analyzes Michal Vašečka, a member of the Aspen Institute and a sociologist at the International School of Liberal Arts in Bratislava. “When you keep telling people that their government is an agent of the United States, they start thinking, ‘Why should our boys go and defend American interests?’ »
War allegations also dominated the recent presidential election in neighboring Czech Republic. Elected at the end of January, the new head of state, Petr Pavel, a former general, is still the target of a campaign of disinformation which portrays him as a warmonger with an easy trigger.
Among the false statements attributed to him, the call to send Czech soldiers to fight in Ukraine or the desire to declare war on Russia.
Pavel’s electoral rival, billionaire and former prime minister Andrej babiesassured on his campaign posters that his adversary did not believe in peace, claiming: “I will not drag the Czech Republic into war”.
“Unbeatable Superpower”
“There is a growing effort to scare people into believing that they will be forced to fight a war they cannot win,” says Czech Elves, a voluntary organization that tracks and analyzes misinformation, in its latest monthly report.
“Russia is portrayed as an unbeatable nuclear superpower waging a successful military campaign in Ukraine,” she said in her latest report.
Slovakia is extremely vulnerable to disinformation, and the Russians have found extremely fertile ground here for their propaganda
In Bulgaria, the pro-Russian ultra-nationalist Vazrazhdane (Renaissance) party staged anti-government protests and warned voters against becoming “cannon fodder”.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who criticizes European arms deliveries to Ukraine, has always been careful not to criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Paradoxically, the political use of the fear of war has had very little success with voters in Poland and the Baltic republics, where the danger of Russian military aggression seems more real.
The common negative historical experience with Russia has immunized their populations against pro-Russian propaganda, believes Jiri Priban.
“There is a real existential fear in the Baltic countries, but this reinforces their support for Ukraine”, judges the professor.