(Stockholm) The city of Bakhmout in eastern Ukraine, at the heart of fighting for months and threatened with encirclement by the Russian army and the paramilitary group Wagner, could fall “in the coming days”, put on Wednesday the Secretary General of NATO.
“We cannot exclude that Bakhmout will finally fall in the next few days,” said the boss of the military alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, on the sidelines of a meeting of European defense ministers in Stockholm.
The fall of the city, whose eastern part was claimed by the Russian paramilitary group Wagner on Wednesday, would leave “the way free” for the Russian army in eastern Ukraine, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The NATO Secretary General has played down the strategic importance of the ruined city of Donbass, which Russia has sworn to conquer despite heavy losses.
“This does not necessarily reflect any turning point in the war,” Stoltenberg told reporters. “But it underlines that we should not underestimate Russia. We must continue to support Ukraine”.
According to Moscow, the capture of the city would allow “new offensive operations in depth”.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky assured, in an interview with American television CNN broadcast on Wednesday, that his troops were determined to hold out in the city.
If Bakhmout falls, the Russians “could go further. They could go to Kramatorsk, they could go to Sloviansk, the way would be clear,” he warned.
Meeting in Stockholm with Mr. Stoltenberg and their Ukrainian counterpart, the defense ministers of the European Union are refining on Wednesday a plan for deliveries to Ukraine of shells and ammunition, despite stocks under pressure.
A first emergency component worth one billion euros is planned, in the face of the crying need of the Ukrainian army for artillery shells.
“It is now a war of attrition, which is a battle of logistics”, underlined the Secretary General of NATO, welcoming the efforts of the EU.
The current gap between the rate of use of ammunition and its production “is not sustainable, and we therefore need to increase the rate of production”.
Tactical withdrawal?
The battle of Bakhmout is the longest and deadliest since the outbreak of the Russian offensive in February 2022. While the strategic value of this city is disputed, it has gained symbolic importance, given the heavy losses suffered by both fields.
Speculation has been rife for weeks about a tactical withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Bakhmout.
In its latest report, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also estimated that Kremlin troops had “likely” captured the eastern part of Bakhmout, after a “controlled withdrawal” of Ukrainian forces. .
But Mr. Zelensky challenged any desire to cede the city, even ordering Tuesday to send reinforcements there.
Moscow has been searching for a victory since its bitter defeats in the fall, and hopes that the city’s fall can open up control of the part of Donbass, an industrial region in eastern Ukraine, which it still escapes.
Wagner’s troops led this attack at the cost of very heavy losses, even by Evguéni Prigojine’s own admission. Moreover, the latter is in open conflict with the military hierarchy, which he accuses of not delivering enough ammunition to his men.
The Russians seem to control access to the city from the north, south and east, leaving only one exit route from the west to the Ukrainians.
Ammunition Delivery
While observers point out that the battle for Bakhmout also has a very high human and military cost for Kyiv, the Ukrainians are determined to resist Bakhmout to wear down the Russian forces, in anticipation of a counter-offensive that they want to launch with the heavy armaments and modern armor promised by the West.
The Defense Ministers of the European Union are also meeting on Wednesday in Stockholm, in the presence of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and their Ukrainian counterpart Oleksiï Reznikov, on this subject.
The objective is to prepare a three-part plan for ammunition deliveries to Ukraine which should be adopted on March 20, during a meeting of the heads of European diplomacy.
On the sidelines of this meeting, Oleksiï Reznikov also challenged the information from the American daily New York Times which, citing anonymous sources in American intelligence, attributes to “a pro-Ukrainian group” the spectacular sabotage of the two Nord Stream gas pipelines at sea Baltic last September.
“It’s not our action,” Reznikov said.
The Kremlin, which accuses the West of sabotage, also rejected this press information, seeing it as an attempt to “divert attention” from the real leaders.
Meanwhile, the UN Human Rights Office said the viral video of a captured Ukrainian soldier apparently shot after shouting “Glory to Ukraine” “seems genuine “.