Rallies against the government’s plan were well attended in January and February. But the success of the call to “put France on hold” on Tuesday will speak volumes about the ability of the inter-union to really weigh in the longer term.
A new impetus or the beginning of the end? The social movement opposing the pension reform project begins a new stage on Tuesday, March 7, with a call no longer for simple demonstrations, but for “bring France to a standstill”. Unions play big.
So far, they have emerged as the winners of the early mobilization. “Never have the unions brought together so many people for at least thirty years”summarizes Dominique Andolfatto, teacher-researcher in political science at the University of Burgundy, “even if we take the most severe figures, those of the police”. The Ministry of the Interior recorded 1.27 million demonstrators in France on January 31, for the second day of mobilization, exceeding the largest rallies of the movements of 2010 or 1995 against previous pension reforms. The following marches were less crowded, but this can be explained by the organization of two days of mobilization in the same week (February 7 and 11) and then by school holidays (February 16).
>> Pension reform: follow the day of mobilization on Tuesday March 7 in our live
The intersyndicale also welcomes the success of an online petition calling for the withdrawal of the project. By early March, it had been signed over a million times. Beyond the figures, Dominique Andolfatto underlines that the movement has succeeded in installing the subject in the minds of the French: “People are asking more questions about this reform. Without having had a direct effect on the bill, the demonstrations have given rise to a substantive debate.”
A “revenge” at the idea of a decline
The purpose of the reform, which in essence affects a majority of French people, facilitates the task of the unions. But the picture drawn by the polls remains rather flattering. They are the actors who “best embody the opposition to the pension reform” for 43% of respondents in an Ifop survey published on February 19 by the Sunday newspaper, far ahead of the RN (25%) and Nupes (23%). Unions are also those whose attitude is most considered “responsible” (at 54%) by people surveyed by OpinionWay for the Echoes (paid item)also mid-February.
“In public opinion, the responsibility appears on their side, their cause is simple and their watchword is clear”insists Jean-Marie Pernot, political scientist at theInstitute for Economic and Social Research (Ires), a public body responsible for informing trade unions. For him, the importance of the parades illustrates the mobilizing power of these organizations. “Certainly, the rate of unionization in France is low. But, if we add up their members, we are not far from 2 million people.” A strike force incomparable with that of political parties, which can also play on the mobilization of non-union members.
“If the unions are able to move their militants, it exerts an attraction on the others. We attract when we are strong.”
Jean-Marie Pernot, researcher at Iresat franceinfo
There were, however, some reasons to doubt this success upstream of the movement. The unionization rate of the French has been falling since the 1970s, details INSEE. If this decline slowed down at the end of the 20th century, it continued between 2013 and 2019, according to Dares. Changes in the world of work and the decline of certain major industries are to blame.
The responsibility of the organizations themselves is still debated, explains Maxime Quijoux. “Do they manage to remain focused on the concerns of employees or are they too isolated?” summarizes the sociologist at the CNRS. He therefore sees the movement against pension reform as “a form of revenge on this thesis. We see that the unions still manage to unite people en masse. And not only in Paris”. The highly commented success of the demonstrations in small and medium-sized towns nuances the criticisms addressed to the unions during the movement of “yellow vests”.
“We always focus on Paris, but it is much more impressive to see 17,000 demonstrators in Angoulême and these people did not come alone.”
Jean-Marie Pernot, researcher at Iresat franceinfo
A unit that meets expectations
The CGT, CFDT and FO even attracted new members in January, according to our information. But observers warn against the risk of overestimating the comeback of the unions. “The new memberships clearly show a recovery. But the CGT claims 600,000 members”recalls Dominique Andolfatto, which invites to put into perspective its more than 10,000 new recruits in January. “It would take tens of thousands to really have an impact.”
To strengthen themselves in the long term, the unions must above all overcome their divisions, believes Jean-Marie Pernot: “Among the workers, the feeling that we observe is: ‘Agree among yourselves first, and then we will take an interest in what you say’.” “Most employees find it difficult to distinguish the different unions, their division is not understood”, agrees Dominique Andolfatto. In the eyes of the two experts, the unity of the inter-union since the beginning of the movement against the pension reform is therefore a central reason for the success of the demonstrations.
Apart from the reform itself, the government’s attitude towards the unions has been able to unite them around a “common enemy”, says Maxime Quijoux. The latter also mentions another possible factor: “Laurent Berger and Philippe Martinez are at the end of their terms of office and have less need to show their muscles.” The bosses of the CFDT and the CGT displayed themselves side by side in the Parisian processions of February 7 and 11, “by sweeping points of disagreement under the rug”, especially on pensions, recalls the sociologist. The CGT defends a legal starting age at 60, while the CFDT accepts a status quo at 62.
Moreover, the union leaders did not mince their words about the attitude of the deputies of La France insoumise during the examination of the bill in the National Assembly. “It was necessary to put the deputies, each deputy, in front of their responsibilities”thus lamented Philippe Martinez on BFMTV, on February 20, regretting that La France insoumise did not withdraw its amendments to allow examination of article 7 of the text, which postpones the legal age of departure to 64 years.
“When Jean-Luc Mélenchon does things like that, he is not an ally of the social movement”, tackled the union leader. The party coordinator, Manuel Bompard, assured him on France 2 that he had prevented a vote not to “demobilize the street”. Why this offensive tone? Trade unions “have felt the mood of public opinion: politicians are discrediting themselves in their eyes, and by mirror effect, they can reinvigorate themselves”, judge Maxime Quijoux. From now on, even figures from Nupes, like the boss of the Communist Party, Fabien Roussel, on France 3, mention the inter-union as an example to follow.
A new slogan, but no “general strike”
However, in two months, the unions have not obtained any concessions from the government. How to achieve this without threatening the fragile balance that has been built? Laurent Berger alerted, on January 28 in The World (paid item)on the need for “keep the opinion” on the side of the movement, warning that blocking the country would be “a gift that should not be given to the government”. “The unions are a little bit trapped”analyzes Dominique Andolfatto, who has the feeling “that they refrain from talking too much about strikes, for fear that it will frighten part of the public”.
From this caution was born the leitmotif “bring France to a standstill” March 7. An ambiguous formula that can allow “to Philippe Martinez to say that they will block the country and to Laurent Berger to say that they will not”, observes Maxime Quijoux. It lends itself less to criticism than to the threat of “bring the French economy to its knees” brandished by Emmanuel Lépine, the general secretary of the CGT Federation of Chemistry, which the government did not fail to seize. The government’s watchword leaves the different branches free to decide on a renewable strike: this is what all the SNCF unions have done, including the CFDT, but only some of the representative organizations in refineries or even education. It also gives the opportunity to invite other actors to join the movement, such as traders, invited to lower the curtain. “Everyone does according to their means”summed up Philippe Martinez on France Culture on March 1. “Going on strike for two hours in a private industrial company is a very important action.”
Staying vague also mitigates the risk of failure. “In terms of credibility, there is no point in declaring a general strike if no one follows”says Maxime Quijoux, according to whom the inter-union is aware that “for activists, it is tiring and costly in times of inflation”. “People who can’t make ends meet will have a hard time going on strike”, agrees Jean-Marie Pernot. For the Ires researcher, the unions remain handicapped by a “lack of rooting” : “Do they have the means to organize a strike that weighs outside refineries and transport?”
Their watchword would have to reach more people than their usual audience. At the end of February, two-thirds of respondents questioned by Ifop for The Sunday newspaper (67%) found the call of March 7 “justified”. The prospect of a renewable strike was supported by 56% of those questioned in an Elabe poll for BFMTV published on Monday. Are they ready to join? This would mark a real comeback of the unions. For the moment, it is still too early to proclaim it: “Somehow they made it easier”believes Jean-Marie Pernot.