It seems that Vladimir Putin has lost his bet. Europe and its citizens, whom he hoped to see shivering in their badly heated apartments, will not take to the streets to demand that governments renew energy ties with Moscow.
However, a few months after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, analysts were rather pessimistic about Europe’s ability to deprive itself of gas from Russia, on which it depended for 40% of its supplies. annual.
If Europeans were able to get through part of the winter without too much discomfort, they have Mother Nature to thank. On the one hand, the temperature played its part: Europe had a very mild winter. This is important, because Europe uses three times more gas in winter than in summer.
Indeed, according to the World Meteorological Organization, several cities in Europe broke heat records dating back several decades this winter.
Thus, on December 31, it was over 19°C in Dresden, Germany, which is almost two degrees higher than the old record set in 1961. The next day, it was 18.6°C in Besançon, in France, a heat record dating back as far as 1918.
On the other hand, Europe has received indirect, but valuable, aid from COVID-19. The strict containment measures implemented by Beijing have markedly reduced its energy needs.
For the first time in four decades, Chinese gas consumption fell in 2022. China was therefore much less present than usual on the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, thus allowing Europe to fill its stocks for the winter. In particular thanks to the contribution of the United States, whose gas exports to the Old Continent have increased by nearly 140% in 2022.
In doing so, the Europeans were able to exceed the filling target set at 80% by the European Union in May 2022 (at the end of winter, the reserves remained high, at 60%).
Finally, the substantial rise in prices also limited demand for energy. During the period August-November 2022, Europe consumed 20% less gas than during the same period last year.
Some efforts
Some efforts have of course been made on the side of the public authorities: absence of lighting in certain less frequented streets, elimination of hot water in public buildings.
Ditto for citizens, who have purchased heat pumps in record numbers, increasing their sales in 2022 by nearly 40% compared to 2021.
But these have been partly sheltered from the dizzying rise in energy prices: since September 2021, European governments have spent no less than 800 billion euros to counter the financial impacts of the energy crisis. to households and industry.
In the meantime, the continent, in particular Germany, has set up terminals in record time to accommodate LNG transported at sea from next winter.
Can Europeans be optimistic in anticipation of winter 2023-2024? Much will depend on a combination of several factors, including whether or not Russian supplies are maintained.
This country now only accounts for 10% of European gas imports, but it continues to send gas to Europe through pipes passing through Ukraine and Turkey (Turkstream). The Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, directly linking Russia to Germany, have in any case become inoperative following acts of sabotage committed last September, and no more gas is circulating in the Yamal gas pipeline passing through Poland.
Will Russia continue gas shipments in 2023? No one knows what is going on in the brain of the Kremlin leader.
Another factor to watch out for is the severity of the upcoming winter. Europe will need a lot of luck to enjoy another mild weather in the upcoming winter season.
Equally, if not more, decisive: China’s energy appetite. The end of confinement in this country should boost energy consumption. China will compete with Europe for LNG from the United States, Australia, Qatar.
But how big will that appetite be? It will depend on the health of the global economy. If the economy is doing well, prices will necessarily be high, as the LNG market is expected to remain quite tight until 2025, before the commissioning of new export terminals, including the one in Kitimat, British Columbia. A weaker economy would mitigate the scale of Europe’s energy challenge.
Betting on a positive combination of all these factors for the coming winter would be like… playing Russian roulette. One thing is certain, when it comes to energy, Europe cannot give in to complacency.