A world of advance settles in kyiv all this week. The hypothesis of a new Russian offensive has been discussed for several days but it may seem less plausible than the opposite: a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Officials of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) say so only in veiled terms. The head of Ukrainian military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov is more categorical: Ukraine is preparing a counter-offensive. The end of winter, within a month, seems a plausible deadline.
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Vladimir Putin may be looking to mark the occasion on Friday February 24, exactly one year after the start of the conflict. The Ukrainians fear a salvo of attacks and firing of missiles or drones. But several military experts believe that Russia does not have the means to launch a new large-scale attack. Conversely, Ukraine has every intention of making inroads in the east and south of the country from the end of March. That’s why the delivery of tanks is crucial. It is of course a question of being able to contain the enemy, but it is above all a question of advancing, of piercing the Russian lines.
Waiting for tanks
The first French AMX light tanks are delivered these days and the first German-made Leopard tanks should arrive within 30 days. Thirty at first, the equivalent of two regiments. They are delivered by Germany, Portugal, Spain, Finland and Norway. Same delivery time for 14 British Challengers. In total, by the summer of 2023, the number of Western tanks delivered to Ukraine could approach one hundred.
The idea for kyiv would be to hold out for at least the coming month by slowing down the slight Russian advances as much as possible, for example the Battle of Bakhmout. The time that these new materials arrive. This period is used to overhaul some of these tanks (for example the tanks available to Spain are reputed to have been poorly maintained) or to repair Russian T72 tanks taken from the enemy.
This period is also used to train Ukrainian soldiers in the handling of these heavy machines: the training is largely done in Germany and lasts at least a month and a half. Also train them in the handling of smaller tanks or armored vehicles: the Marders, the Bradleys, the AMXs. This is all that is going on during this winter period.
The hypotheses of a Ukrainian counter-offensive
The authorities in kyiv are of course not going to say what a counter-offensive will look like. And since the front is 900 km long, there are multiple options. But we can mention a few.
The first is to attempt a breakthrough towards the southeast, to retake the martyr city of Mariupol which has a strong symbolic value and a strong geostrategic value. Such a breakthrough would make it possible to regain a foothold on the Sea of Azov and to cut the Russian lines in two, between the Crimea on one side and the Donbass on the other. Second hypothesis: to regain control of the nuclear power plant zone of Zaporijjia, still to the south. Here again, strong symbolic value and strong energy interest by reconnecting the plant to the Ukrainian network. But it’s a high-risk mission given the nuclear environment.
More improbable, an attack on the Crimea (transformed into a fortress by the Russians) or a frontal counter-attack in the east, on a terrain which has become a war of trenches like the First World War. In any case, the Ukrainian population is convinced here: whatever Vladimir Putin does on Friday for February 24, the counter-offensive of Ukraine will come.