The era is digital, its wars too. The arsenal present in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict shows to what extent military means have changed over the last decades with the computer revolution. The conflict, now a year old, has also amply demonstrated the combined arms as the key to success. “All the setbacks of the invader, especially at the start of the war, stem from a lack of coordination and integration of the different fields of operation, for example when the armored vehicles waiting on a road did not obtain protection aerial,” explains Justin Massie, professor of political science at UQAM, co-director of the Strategic Analysis Network at the Montreal Institute of International Studies. Here are other observations concerning the weapons used on both sides.
cellphones
On New Year’s Eve 2023, the Ukrainian military launched surface-to-surface missiles at a school in the occupied town of Makiivka in Donetsk Oblast which served as a “temporary deployment center” for the Russian military. The strike left 89 dead according to the Russian general staff, but five times as many victims according to the attackers. Certainly, once again, this very lethal military flaw stemmed from the use of laptops by recruits. The data collected made it possible to precisely locate the group of soldiers to coordinate the attack. Similarly, at the start of the war, invaders betrayed their positions by using their personal phones to call relatives and relay videos on TikTok. So goes the war in the era of digital nomads. And the soldier who feels alive by motive dies by motive.
Satellites
“At the beginning of the conflict, Russia tried to destroy Ukrainian communications systems,” explains Mr. Massie. The SpaceX company’s Starlink system, which provides Internet via satellite, has been essential for the continuity of operations, for Ukrainians to communicate with each other, but also to have an overview of the operating grounds. These means make war and military fronts more visible. Social networks are overflowing with videos and photos produced by soldiers and citizens with their portable devices, then relayed via the Internet. Even war crimes can be documented and disseminated in this way.
Cyberwar
The first attacks on information systems in Ukraine date from the mass Euromaidan protests around 2013-2014, followed by the hacking of power grids and government websites. The cyberwar has been going on for a year (with around 350 attacks recorded in the first two months of the conflict), but with seemingly minimal effects. “There are two limits to this Russian capacity, judge Mr. Massie. First, we don’t know everything because the attackers do not publicize their strikes. Then, the Americans, Canada and other countries gave enormous support to protect the attacked country, but, again, without much transparency. We understand this: if we expose the success of a protection technique, we at the same time provide the adversary with the keys to breaking through the defense system. »
Drones
The Russians use Iranian remote-controlled devices, which will soon be produced in a factory under construction in Russia. The Ukrainians remote control Bayraktar TB2, DJI Mavic Pro or Shahed, often modified by their engineers, especially for reconnaissance and surveillance of enemy positions. “It is the combined arms tactical combination, between artillery, tanks and drones, which is effective, repeats Mr. Massie. This is what must be remembered: the integration of several means can change things in this war where the means are higher than before. »
Planes and missiles
The invaded country uses a patchwork of anti-aircraft and anti-missile means, from the Norwegian NASAMS system to the French Crotale missile, via the German IRIS-T, the Italian Aspide 2000 and the American Hawk, which are added to the batteries inherited from the soviet era. The United States has promised the delivery of Patriot ballistic missiles with a range of up to 150 kilometers, with millimeter strike accuracy. “The Russian army quickly understood the effectiveness of defenses and now only conducts air operations in the territories it controls,” notes Mr. Massie. kyiv has also long demanded fighter jets. Mechanical parts and even a few Soviet-made MIG-29s were eventually supplied to it by other former USSR satellite countries. “Aviation will not be a game changer, unless the Westerners provide their best aircraft, F-35s for example,” adds the professor, who also puts into perspective the advantage provided by a single weapon, even if it is high-strength.
Tanks
At the beginning of the war, the two armies used the same type of tank of Soviet origin, the Ukrainian army being supplied partly by Poland. The Russians lost many due to weak or poor air cover, itself due to a misreading of the invaded country’s capacity and will to resist. The West has just decided to equip the Kiev army with very high performance vehicles, German Leopard 2s (Canada will provide four) and American Abrams tanks. These armored vehicles had been requested by President Zelensky for months. This new tactical advantage, however, poses an immense logistical challenge to train soldiers and operate and maintain high-tech land vehicles.
Ammunition
The drawn-out conflict, often bogged down in trenches, requires ammunition aplenty. The aggressors were firing up to 50,000 shells a day in July while their opponents were returning 6,000 according to some estimates. Ukrainian consumption increased sharply in the following months with the counter-offensive towards the east. The Secretary General of NATO has just sounded the alarm by stressing that this demand for ammunition poses a serious challenge to Western production factories. Even in the United States, despite its large capacity, specialists are worried about the depletion of stocks. “The military are among the most reluctant to give out weapons for fear of finding themselves in the open,” says Mr. Massie. Canada donates four tanks, it’s not much, but will they be replaced? He also notes that great competition is currently taking place between suppliers, who can demonstrate the effectiveness of their weapons. The French Rattlesnake with its 100% anti-aircraft destruction efficiency is going to be in great demand in the next few years all over the world.
Armament
The lengthening of the war, which could last for years to come, has also had the effect of reviving the arms race. NATO now makes the figure of 2% of GDP devoted to military expenditure a floor, and no longer a ceiling. Mr. Massie recalls that Canada is not taking any action in this direction. He wrote in The Rubicon that “Canada’s military awakening is not for tomorrow”. “Canada’s best projections speak of reaching 1.5% [à terme], concludes the specialist. There are no considerable reinvestments, as in Germany, where 100 billion more were announced immediately. All the expenditures recently announced by Ottawa were provided for in the 2017 defense policy. We are replacing old equipment: obsolete planes, radars that no longer work, etc. We don’t add anything. There is no revolution. […] From my point of view, an investment in defense is an investment. We never want to use it, but we have it when necessary, for example to protect an invaded country…”