(Lima) Peru has been embroiled in a political and social crisis for two months with daily demonstrations demanding the resignation of President Dina Boluarte, a mobilization that the government has violently repressed without however managing to restore stability and social peace.
The protests, which left 48 people dead, erupted on December 7 with the ousting of former left-wing president Pedro Castillo, replaced by his vice-president Dina Boluarte.
Coming from the same party as him, she is considered a traitor by the protesters – mostly of indigenous origin like the former president – who are demanding, in addition to her resignation, the dissolution of Parliament.
Between roadblocks, economic paralysis and a state of emergency in nine of the country’s 25 regions, the presidency and parliament seem unable to reach a consensus to end the crisis. Three analysts put forward possible exit scenarios.
Resignation
The Peruvian Constitution provides that in the event of the resignation of the Head of State, he is replaced on an interim basis by the President of Parliament, whose mission is then to call elections, without however setting a precise deadline.
“The only (scenario) possible is the departure of President Boluarte,” said Paula Tavara, political scientist and professor at the Catholic University of Lima, stressing the lack of “real will” on the part of Parliament to advance the elections. However, she considers this possibility “highly unlikely”.
Mme Boluarte has already said that her resignation was “not at stake”, because she believes that it would be giving in to “political blackmail”. A resignation would also remove her presidential immunity, so the prosecution opened an investigation for “genocide” against her and several other senior officials for the repression of the demonstrations, underlines the political scientist.
A resignation would finally go against his interests and those of the right-wing parties in Parliament which supported his appointment, and which “play together”, according to political scientist from the University of Granada, Spain, Patricia Paniagua.
Dismissal
The Constitution grants Parliament the power to impeach the head of state, which has happened three times since the early 2000s: Alberto Fujimori (2000), Martin Vizcarra (2020) and Pedro Castillo (2022).
That Dina Boluarte is next on the list, on the initiative of left-wing parties, is a persistent rumor in parliament, although it requires the vote of two-thirds of the assembly (87 legislators out of 130).
“I see this as very unlikely because it would also accelerate the departure of Parliament,” said Alonso Cardenas, professor of political science at Antonio Ruiz de Montoya University in the capital.
social explosion
It is also not excluded that the growing discontent among the population could lead to an even stronger social explosion.
“With more overheated minds, greater frustration with a lack of response and better organization, it is possible that the mobilization will intensify”, warns Paula Tavara.
“Unfortunately, this week of non-decision has brought us closer to this scenario,” she judges.
Citing a procedural flaw, Parliament blocked Friday and until August any debate aimed at advancing the general elections, as desired by Dina Boluarte in the hope of calming the demonstrations.
According to Peruvian law, the presidency and parliamentarians both have a five-year term, which expires in July 2026.
End of protests
It is also possible that Dina Boluarte and the Parliament will complete their term in 2026, especially considering the wear and tear that two months of mobilization represents for the protesters and society in general.
Patricia Paniagua believes that the government is aware of the fatigue of mobilized citizens. “The response from the street is forceful, resolute […], but can it be maintained in the medium or long term? she asks herself.
According to her, the silence of Dina Boluarte after the Parliament had blocked any debate until August on early elections indicates that she “supports” this decision and that the two powers will continue to “turn their backs on what happens in the street”.
Paula Tavara, for her part, believes that this scenario could benefit from a “serious act of contrition” by the presidency with a change of government, the prosecution of those responsible for the deaths and the opening of a dialogue with the demonstrators.
It is more likely, however, according to Alonso Cardenas, that Dina Boluarte, the first woman to lead Peru, continues to act as if “nothing happened” and lets the mobilization die out without making any concessions.