(New York) Barring a surprise, Joe Biden will confirm his intention to seek a second term in the White House in March or April. But, in a way, his re-election campaign will begin Tuesday evening at the United States Capitol.
The 46e President will then deliver his State of the Union address there, a ritual of American political life which should normally allow him to present his program for the current year to the elected representatives of Congress and to tens of millions of television viewers.
It certainly won’t fail. But the 2024 election deadline will dominate his thoughts, say experts on US politics.
“This speech will have a lot to do with the next presidential campaign,” said Ross Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University in New Jersey. “I think the president is going to be able to cite a series of accomplishments, including on the economy, that will form the backbone of his 2024 platform.”
Among these achievements are historic plans to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic, modernize the country’s infrastructure, accelerate the energy transition and compete with China in the microchip sector.
Achievements that add up to employment figures that Joe Biden will not fail to brag about: in January, for example, the American economy thwarted all predictions by creating 517,000 jobs, a performance that contributed to the fall in the unemployment rate at 3.4%, unheard of since 1969.
“He will argue that the economic policies he espoused entitle him to a second term,” says Ross Baker.
But the Democrats are very far from being unanimous on this subject. No less than 58% of them say they would prefer a candidate other than Joe Biden to run under their party’s banner in 2024, according to a poll washington post/ABC News published last weekend.
“He looks his age”
This result probably has less to do with the Democrat’s performance in the White House than with his age. This reality explains why the State of the Union address will also be the state address of Joe Biden, the first octogenarian president to occupy the American presidency.
“For many inside and outside the country, the State of the Union address will serve as a measure of Joe Biden’s ability, the ability of a Democrat, to win in 2024,” Karen said. Hult, a political scientist at Virginia Tech University.
In the United States, people will also observe the president’s energy level and his ability to articulate his ideas well.
Karen Hult, political scientist at Virginia Tech University
Joe Biden’s advisers will no doubt follow his speech from the end of their chairs, biting their nails or pacing.
“It’s a big challenge,” comments Ross Baker of Joe Biden’s great oral presentation. “He can have great achievements. He can handle situations with skill. But he looks like an 80-year-old man. And the visual is not good. He has a stiff gait. The photos don’t flatter him. He looks his age. »
Bipartisan President
Despite his vast and long experience, Joe Biden will face a new reality. For the first time, he will deliver a State of the Union address to a Congress in which one of the two chambers has passed under the control of the opposing party.
This chamber, led by Kevin McCarthy and dominated by elected Trumpists, has promised to make his life difficult, in particular by investigating all aspects of his administration. One of its commissions should even hold a first hearing on the computer of Hunter Biden, son of the president, on Wednesday.
PHOTO KEVIN LAMARQUE, REUTERS ARCHIVES
Kevin McCarthy
Representatives of the House of Representatives are also engaged in a showdown with the White House over the debt ceiling, which must be raised by June or July to avoid a catastrophic default.
But Joe Biden shouldn’t attack Republicans head-on on these issues.
The president would be well advised to adopt a more bipartisan, welcoming and cooperative tone.
Karen Hult, political scientist at Virginia Tech University
“He could congratulate Mr. McCarthy on his election as Speaker of the House, point out that a chamber of the United States Congress is controlled by the opposing party and reiterate his willingness to work across party lines to achieve a result desired by the American people. I don’t like this shot, but he could come across as the only adult in the room. »
The unavoidable
Joe Biden will probably overlook the discovery of classified documents in his belongings. But he will not be able to ignore another discovery, that of the Chinese spy balloon, which flew over American territory for several days before being shot down last Saturday off South Carolina.
“The president needs to address this, explain why he did what he did, and remember, of course, that surveillance balloons flew over the United States during the Trump administration,” Ross Baker said. At least he shot one down. »
Another unavoidable international subject: Ukraine.
Domestically, Joe Biden is expected to renew his calls to Congress to ban assault rifles in the wake of the recent mass shootings in California, as well as to pass police reform after the death of Tire Nichols at the hands of five Memphis police officers.
RowVaughn Wells, mother of Mr Nichols, will be among the guests of First Lady Jill Biden.