2023, the year of India | The Press

Demography, growth, geostrategy. India’s global influence will be confirmed more than ever in 2023. Here’s why…

The most populous country

China will soon no longer be the most populous country on the planet. If the UN predictions turn out to be correct, India should snatch this first place at the beginning of July by reaching the figure of 1.428 billion inhabitants. This trend should continue until the end of the century, with demographic projections announcing 1.7 billion inhabitants in India in 2060 and 1.5 billion in 2100, ie twice as many as China, whose population is gradually declining.

“It’s an extraordinary phenomenon, because for 2000 years, China has always been number one in terms of population”, summarizes Serge Granger, professor of political science and specialist in Sino-Indian relations at the University of Sherbrooke.

This exploit has no value in itself, underlines the expert. But it has symbolic value for Indian power and should reinforce the policy of Prime Minister Narendra Modi before the general elections of 2024.

“It will reinforce the idea that we must stand up to China [politiquement, économiquement]. We must therefore expect rhetoric that will favor the government in place. It will add an element to Modi’s nationalism, ”sums up Mr. Granger, referring among other things to the Sino-Indian border conflict in the Himalayas.

The world’s fifth largest economy

According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India experienced a growth rate of 7.5% in 2022, almost twice as high as China’s at 4.4%.

The country has also established itself as the fifth largest economic power in the world, overtaking its former colonizer, the United Kingdom. Another strong symbol.

According to IMF predictions, it could catch up with Germany as early as 2027 and Japan in 2028, which would eventually put it in third place behind the United States and China.

Several factors contribute to this dynamism: recovery measures, strengthening of infrastructures, local production policy called “Make in India”. Not to mention that India’s population is spectacularly young. In all, 72% of the population is under 30 and it is estimated that in 2050, only 15% of Indians will be over 65 (compared to 30% of Chinese). India is therefore on its way to becoming the world’s largest pool of labor and a growing number of foreign companies will want to take advantage of these cheap wages, these increasingly well-trained, educated and globally connected employees. .

“Structurally, India’s growth rate will remain higher for quite some time yet,” summarizes Serge Granger. It is a basic trend. »

An “unaligned” ally

India stands out more than ever as a counterweight in the power struggles between the United States, China and Russia.

Geostrategically, security cooperation between India and the United States has intensified. Economically too. ” While the friend shoring [redéfinition des chaînes d’approvisionnement mondiales où les pays alignés ne dépendraient plus des régimes autoritaires] develops, the United States sees India as an alternative to China on the Asian continent,” says Carla Norrlöf, an expert on political and economic hegemonies at the University of Toronto. This is how Apple will produce its iPhone 14 in India, to no longer depend on China.

India nevertheless remains faithful to its policy of non-alignment. Although sharing American interests in the face of Chinese domination, it has not joined the chorus of international sanctions against Russia and has even increased its trade with the Kremlin, which has become its main supplier of oil. It also advocates for greater diversification of international payment structures, which still depend mainly on Western currencies.

“In terms of foreign policy, India’s choice is to resist the new trend of aligning economic policies with security interests,” summarizes Mr.^me Norrlöf.

A permanent seat on the UN Security Council?

India took over the rotating presidency of the G20 in December. During his one-year tenure, the country will hold more than 200 meetings in some 50 cities, culminating in a major summit to be held in New Delhi next September. She is also beginning a two-year term as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Will it take the opportunity to claim a permanent seat alongside China, Russia, the United States, France and the United Kingdom? This is the prediction of some observers, but not of Romuald Sciora, author of the book Who wants the death of the UN?.

“It will not happen and I would put my two hands to cut, slice Mr. Sciora. For what ? Because if the issue was put on the table, China would oppose it, Russia would oppose it and other non-permanent members would do everything to prevent it from happening. Pakistan, for example. If we open to India, why not Brazil, Egypt, South Africa? In my opinion, there will be no reform of the Security Council, unless there is a shock like the First World War, which generates such a revolution in international relations that it would cause a total reform of the multilateral system. »

A few flats

So: 2023, year of India? Yes, but… despite its undeniable rise in power, the country is still slowed down by obstacles. Serge Granger recalls that a third of its population is still “extremely poor”, which represents an economic drag. “It’s a mass that is difficult to integrate into the international market, except in labor-intensive sectors”, particularly textiles. The underdevelopment of infrastructures, the bureaucratic heaviness, the weak urbanization constitute other obstacles to its rapid development. An Asian giant is rising, but according to Antoine Bondaz, Asia specialist at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), China is still far from having lost its throne. “Symbolically, all this puts Sino-Indian competition ahead, but it does not change the balance of power. Economically and even militarily, China is still far ahead of India. The concrete political impact on the balance of power must be put into perspective. »

India in numbers

• 1.415 billion inhabitants (January 2023)
• 17.7% of the world’s population
• 464 people/km
• 35% of the population lives in the city.
• 28.4 years: average age
• 70.42 years: life expectancy
• 12,691,836 : population of Bombay (Mumbai), the most populous city in India

Source: www.worldometers.info