Only 8.5% of companies in the European Union and G7 countries have left Russia, according to a Swiss university study published Thursday, which questions “the discourse on a vast exodus” of companies since the invasion of the EU. ‘Ukraine.
Before the start of the conflict in February, 2,405 subsidiaries belonging to 1,404 companies from the European Union and G7 countries were active in Russia, identified professors Simon Evenett of the University of St. Gallen and Niccolò Pisani of IMD Lausanne, a prestigious business management institute.
At the end of November, nine months after the invasion of Ukraine, less than 9% of the panel studied had already sold at least one Russian subsidiary, the departures mainly concerning American companies, rather than European or Japanese companies, according to their work.
As of that date, less than 18% of affiliates owned by US-based companies had fully completed the sale of their Russian affiliates, compared to 15% for those owned by Japanese companies and 8.3% for those owned by US-based companies. of the EU.
“Many companies domiciled in these states have resisted pressure from governments, media and NGOs to leave Russia since the invasion of Ukraine,” notes the statement from the University of St. Gallen presenting the study. .
Several factors can explain why companies have not left Russia. Their activity may, for example, not fall under the sanctions. Others may not want to opt out because of the “societal” usefulness of their products, list the authors of the study, citing essential drugs as an example.
Some may also not have found a buyer at a sufficient price while others, even when they have found a buyer, come up against obstacles that the Russian government may have put in place “to hinder” or “delay the assignment”, and prevent the repatriation of the proceeds of the sale.
But if the number of Western companies opting out “does not increase significantly” within the next year or two, “the willingness or ability of many Western companies to divest from jurisdictions that their governments view as geopolitical rivals could be called into question”, they judge.
According to their research, 120 Western companies had left Russia by the end of November. Among those who are still active there, 19.5% are German, 12.4% are American and 7% Japanese.